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Volatility Spillovers for Spot, Futures, and ETF Prices in Energy and Agriculture

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Listed:
  • Chang, C-L.
  • Liu, C-P.
  • McAleer, M.J.

Abstract

The agricultural and energy industries are closely related, both biologically and financially. The paper discusses the relationship and the interactions on price and volatility, with special focus on the covolatility spillover effects for these two industries. The interaction and covolatility spillovers, or the delayed effect of a returns shock in one asset on the subsequent volatility or covolatility in another asset, between the energy and agricultural industries is the primary emphasis of the paper. Although there has already been significant research on biofuel and biofuel-related crops, much of the previous research has sought to find a relationship among commodity prices. Only a few published papers have been concerned with volatility spillovers. However, it must be emphasized that there have been numerous technical errors in the theoretical and empirical research, which needs to be corrected. The paper not only considers futures prices as a widely-used hedging instrument, but also takes an interesting new hedging instrument, ETF, into account. ETF is regarded as index futures when investors manage their portfolios, so it is possible to calculate an optimal dynamic hedging ratio. This is a very useful and interesting application for the estimation and testing of volatility spillovers. In the empirical analysis, multivariate conditional volatility diagonal BEKK models are estimated for comparing patterns of covolatility spillovers. The paper provides a new way of analyzing and describing the patterns of covolatility spillovers, which should be useful for the future empirical analysis of estimating and testing covolatility spillover effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Chang, C-L. & Liu, C-P. & McAleer, M.J., 2016. "Volatility Spillovers for Spot, Futures, and ETF Prices in Energy and Agriculture," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI2016-28, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  • Handle: RePEc:ems:eureir:93115
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Energy and agriculture; covolatility spillovers; spot prices; futures prices; exchange traded funds; biofuels; optimal dynamic hedging;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • Q14 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Finance
    • Q42 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Alternative Energy Sources

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