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The influence of biofuels, economic and financial factors on daily returns of commodity futures prices

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  • Algieri, Bernardina

Abstract

Biofuels production has experienced rapid growth worldwide as one of several strategies to promote green energy economies. Indeed, climate change mitigation and energy security have been frequent rationales behind biofuel policies, but biofuels production could generate negative impacts, such as additional demand for feedstocks, and therefore for land on which to grow them, with a consequent increase in food commodity price. In this context, this paper examines the effect of biofuels and other economic and financial factors on daily returns of a group of commodity futures prices using Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) family models in univariate and multivariate settings. The results show that a complex of drivers are relevant in explaining commodity futures returns; more precisely, the Standard and Poor’s (S&P) 500 positively affects commodity markets, while the US/Euro exchange rate brings about a decline in commodity returns. It turns out, in addition, that energy market returns are significant in explaining commodity returns on a daily basis, while monetary liquidity does not. Finally, the GARCH model has shown that current variance is influenced more by its past values than by the previous day’s shocks, and there is high persistence, meaning that variance slowly decays and prompts a sluggish “revert to the mean.” The multivariate BEKK framework confirms the results of the univariate setting.

Suggested Citation

  • Algieri, Bernardina, 2014. "The influence of biofuels, economic and financial factors on daily returns of commodity futures prices," Discussion Papers 164963, University of Bonn, Center for Development Research (ZEF).
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:ubzefd:164963
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Chia-Lin Chang & Chia-Ping Liu & Michael McAleer, 2016. "Volatility Spillovers for Spot, Futures, and ETF Prices in Energy and Agriculture," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 16-046/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    2. Algieri, Bernardina & Leccadito, Arturo, 2017. "Assessing contagion risk from energy and non-energy commodity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 312-322.
    3. Matthias Kalkuhl & Mekbib Haile & Lukas Kornher & Marta Kozicka, 2015. "Cost-benefit framework for policy action to navigate food price spikes. FOODSECURE Working Paper No 33," FOODSECURE Working papers 33, LEI Wageningen UR.
    4. Chia-Lin Chang & Yiying Li & Michael McAleer, 2015. "Volatility Spillovers between Energy and Agricultural Markets: A Critical Appraisal of Theory and Practice," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 15-077/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    5. repec:eee:jfpoli:v:69:y:2017:i:c:p:256-269 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Algieri, Bernardina & Kalkuhl, Matthias & Koch, Nicolas, 2015. "A Tale for Two Tails: Explaining Extreme Events in Financialized Agricultural markets," 2015 Conference (59th), February 10-13, 2015, Rotorua, New Zealand 202529, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    7. Trumbo, Jennifer L. & Tonn, Bruce E., 2016. "Biofuels: A sustainable choice for the United States' energy future?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 147-161.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    futures returns; biofuels; univariate and multivariate GARCH; Environmental Economics and Policy; Financial Economics; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; C58; G15; Q14; Q43;

    JEL classification:

    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • Q14 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Finance
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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