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Price volatility in ethanol markets

  • Serra, Teresa
  • Zilberman, David

Our paper looks at how price volatility in the Brazilian ethanol industry changes over time and across markets by using a new methodological approach suggested by Seo (2007). The main advantage of Seo’s proposal over previously existing methods is that it allows to jointly estimate the cointegration relationship between the price series investigated and the multivariate GARCH process. Our results suggest that crude oil prices not only influence ethanol price levels, but also their volatility. Increased volatility in crude oil markets results in increased volatility in ethanol markets. Ethanol prices, on the other hand, influence sugar price levels and an increase in their volatility levels also impacts, though less strongly, on sugar markets.

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File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/49188
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Paper provided by Agricultural and Applied Economics Association in its series 2009 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, 2009, Milwaukee, Wisconsin with number 49188.

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Date of creation: 2009
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Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea09:49188
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  1. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
  2. Denis Kwiatkowski & Peter C.B. Phillips & Peter Schmidt, 1991. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root: How Sure Are We That Economic Time Series Have a Unit Root?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 979, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  3. BAUWENS, Luc & LAURENT, Sébastien & ROMBOUTS, Jeroen VK, . "Multivariate GARCH models: a survey," CORE Discussion Papers RP -1847, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  4. Perron, Pierre, 1997. "Further evidence on breaking trend functions in macroeconomic variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 355-385, October.
  5. Engle, Robert F. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(01), pages 122-150, February.
  6. Kelvin Balcombe & Alastair Bailey & Jonathan Brooks, 2007. "Threshold Effects in Price Transmission: The Case of Brazilian Wheat, Maize, and Soya Prices," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 89(2), pages 308-323.
  7. Oecd, 2006. "Agricultural Market Impacts of Future Growth in the Production of Biofuels," OECD Papers, OECD Publishing, vol. 6(1), pages 1-57.
  8. Seo, Byeongseon, 2007. "Asymptotic distribution of the cointegrating vector estimator in error correction models with conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 137(1), pages 68-111, March.
  9. Hamelinck, Carlo N & Faaij, Andre P.C., 2006. "Outlook for advanced biofuels," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(17), pages 3268-3283, November.
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