Modelling Long Memory Volatility in Agricultural Commodity Futures Returns
This paper estimates the long memory volatility model for 16 agricultural commodity futures returns from different futures markets, namely corn, oats, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, wheat, live cattle, cattle feeder, pork, cocoa, coffee, cotton, orange juice, Kansas City wheat, rubber, and palm oil. The class of fractional GARCH models, namely the FIGARCH model of Baillie et al. (1996), FIEGACH model of Bollerslev and Mikkelsen (1996), and FIAPARCH model of Tse (1998), are modelled and compared with the GARCH model of Bollerslev (1986), EGARCH model of Nelson (1991), and APARCH model of Ding et al. (1993). The estimated d parameters, indicating long-term dependence, suggest that fractional integration is found in most of agricultural commodity futures returns series. In addition, the FIGARCH (1,d,1) and FIEGARCH(1,d,1) models are found to outperform their GARCH(1,1) and EGARCH(1,1) counterparts.
|Date of creation:||Oct 2009|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://www.carf.e.u-tokyo.ac.jp/english/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Bollerslev, Tim & Ole Mikkelsen, Hans, 1996.
"Modeling and pricing long memory in stock market volatility,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 151-184, July.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS program to replicate Bollerslev-Mikkelson(1996) FIEGARCH models," Statistical Software Components RTZ00173, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Coakley, Jerry & Dollery, Jian & Kellard, Neil, 2008. "The role of long memory in hedging effectiveness," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 3075-3082, February.
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1986.
"Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
- Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
- Kang, Sang Hoon & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2007. "Long memory properties in return and volatility: Evidence from the Korean stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 385(2), pages 591-600.
- Richard T. Baillie & Young Wook Han & Tae-Go Kwon, 2002. "Further Long Memory Properties of Inflationary Shocks," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 68(3), pages 496-510, January.
- Keith Jefferis & Pako Thupayagale, 2008. "Long Memory In Southern African Stock Markets," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 76(3), pages 384-398, 09.
- Schwert, G William, 1990.
"Stock Volatility and the Crash of '87,"
Review of Financial Studies,
Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(1), pages 77-102.
- Hyun J. Jin & Darren L. Frechette, 2004. "Fractional Integration in Agricultural Futures Price Volatilities," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 86(2), pages 432-443.
- McAleer, Michael, 2005. "Automated Inference And Learning In Modeling Financial Volatility," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(01), pages 232-261, February.
- Lux, Thomas & Kaizoji, Taisei, 2006.
"Forecasting volatility and volume in the Tokyo stock market: Long memory, fractality and regime switching,"
Economics Working Papers
2006,13, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
- Lux, Thomas & Kaizoji, Taisei, 2007. "Forecasting volatility and volume in the Tokyo Stock Market: Long memory, fractality and regime switching," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1808-1843, June.
- Taisei Kaizoji & Thomas Lux, 2006. "Forecasting Volatility and Volume in the Tokyo Stock Market: Long Memory, Fractality and Regime Switching," Working Papers wp06-20, Warwick Business School, Finance Group.
- Esther Ruiz & Helena Veiga, 2006.
"Modelling Long-Memory Volatilities With Leverage Effect: Almsv Versus Fiegarch,"
Statistics and Econometrics Working Papers
ws066016, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Estadística y Econometría.
- Ruiz, Esther & Veiga, Helena, 2008. "Modelling long-memory volatilities with leverage effect: A-LMSV versus FIEGARCH," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 2846-2862, February.
- Davidson, James, 2004. "Moment and Memory Properties of Linear Conditional Heteroscedasticity Models, and a New Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 22(1), pages 16-29, January.
- Peter S. Sephton, 2009. "Fractional integration in agricultural futures price volatilities revisited," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 40(1), pages 103-111, 01.
- Stavros Degiannakis, 2004. "Volatility forecasting: evidence from a fractional integrated asymmetric power ARCH skewed-t model," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(18), pages 1333-1342.
- McAleer, Michael & Chan, Felix & Marinova, Dora, 2007. "An econometric analysis of asymmetric volatility: Theory and application to patents," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 139(2), pages 259-284, August.
- Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-70, March.
- Ser-Huang Poon & Clive W.J. Granger, 2003. "Forecasting Volatility in Financial Markets: A Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(2), pages 478-539, June.
- Shiqing Ling & Michael McAleer, 2001.
"Necessary and Sufficient Moment Conditions for the GARCH(r,s) and Asymmetric Power GARCH(r,s) Models,"
ISER Discussion Paper
0534, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
- Ling, Shiqing & McAleer, Michael, 2002. "NECESSARY AND SUFFICIENT MOMENT CONDITIONS FOR THE GARCH(r,s) AND ASYMMETRIC POWER GARCH(r,s) MODELS," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(03), pages 722-729, June.
- Christian Conrad & Michael J. Lamla, 2007. "The High-Frequency Response of the EUR-US Dollar Exchange Rate to ECB Monetary Policy Announcements," KOF Working papers 07-174, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
- Baillie, Richard T. & Bollerslev, Tim & Mikkelsen, Hans Ole, 1996.
"Fractionally integrated generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 3-30, September.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS programs to replicate Baillie, Bollerslev, Mikkelson FIGARCH results," Statistical Software Components RTZ00009, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Ding, Zhuanxin & Granger, Clive W. J. & Engle, Robert F., 1993. "A long memory property of stock market returns and a new model," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 83-106, June.
- Y. K. Tse, 1998. "The conditional heteroscedasticity of the yen-dollar exchange rate," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(1), pages 49-55.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cfi:fseres:cf183. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.