IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Modelling Long Memory Volatility in Agricultural Commodity Futures Returns

  • Roengchai Tansuchat

    (Faculty of Economics, Maejo University)

  • Chia-Lin Chang

    (Department of Applied Economics, National Chung Hsing University)

  • Michael McAleer

    (Econometric Institute, Erasmus School of Economics, Erasmus University Rotterdam and Tinbergen Institute and Center for International Research on the Japanese Economy (CIRJE), Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo)

This paper estimates the long memory volatility model for 16 agricultural commodity futures returns from different futures markets, namely corn, oats, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, wheat, live cattle, cattle feeder, pork, cocoa, coffee, cotton, orange juice, Kansas City wheat, rubber, and palm oil. The class of fractional GARCH models, namely the FIGARCH model of Baillie et al. (1996), FIEGACH model of Bollerslev and Mikkelsen (1996), and FIAPARCH model of Tse (1998), are modelled and compared with the GARCH model of Bollerslev (1986), EGARCH model of Nelson (1991), and APARCH model of Ding et al. (1993). The estimated d parameters, indicating long-term dependence, suggest that fractional integration is found in most of agricultural commodity futures returns series. In addition, the FIGARCH (1,d,1) and FIEGARCH(1,d,1) models are found to outperform their GARCH(1,1) and EGARCH(1,1) counterparts.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.cirje.e.u-tokyo.ac.jp/research/dp/2009/2009cf680.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo in its series CIRJE F-Series with number CIRJE-F-680.

as
in new window

Length: 35pages
Date of creation: Oct 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:tky:fseres:2009cf680
Contact details of provider: Postal: Hongo 7-3-1, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113-0033
Phone: +81-3-5841-5644
Fax: +81-3-5841-8294
Web page: http://www.cirje.e.u-tokyo.ac.jp/index.html
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Christian Conrad & Michael J. Lamla, 2007. "The High-Frequency Response of the EUR-US Dollar Exchange Rate to ECB Monetary Policy Announcements," KOF Working papers 07-174, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
  2. Keith Jefferis & Pako Thupayagale, 2008. "Long Memory In Southern African Stock Markets," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 76(3), pages 384-398, 09.
  3. Taisei Kaizoji & Thomas Lux, 2006. "Forecasting Volatility and Volume in the Tokyo Stock Market: Long Memory, Fractality and Regime Switching," Working Papers wp06-20, Warwick Business School, Finance Group.
  4. Stavros Degiannakis, 2004. "Volatility forecasting: evidence from a fractional integrated asymmetric power ARCH skewed-t model," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(18), pages 1333-1342.
  5. Ser-Huang Poon & Clive W.J. Granger, 2003. "Forecasting Volatility in Financial Markets: A Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(2), pages 478-539, June.
  6. Coakley, Jerry & Dollery, Jian & Kellard, Neil, 2008. "The role of long memory in hedging effectiveness," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 3075-3082, February.
  7. Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
  8. McAleer, Michael, 2005. "Automated Inference And Learning In Modeling Financial Volatility," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(01), pages 232-261, February.
  9. Richard T. Baillie & Young Wook Han & Tae-Go Kwon, 2002. "Further Long Memory Properties of Inflationary Shocks," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 68(3), pages 496-510, January.
  10. Ling, Shiqing & McAleer, Michael, 2002. "NECESSARY AND SUFFICIENT MOMENT CONDITIONS FOR THE GARCH(r,s) AND ASYMMETRIC POWER GARCH(r,s) MODELS," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(03), pages 722-729, June.
  11. McAleer, Michael & Chan, Felix & Marinova, Dora, 2007. "An econometric analysis of asymmetric volatility: Theory and application to patents," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 139(2), pages 259-284, August.
  12. Kang, Sang Hoon & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2007. "Long memory properties in return and volatility: Evidence from the Korean stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 385(2), pages 591-600.
  13. Bollerslev, Tim & Ole Mikkelsen, Hans, 1996. "Modeling and pricing long memory in stock market volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 151-184, July.
  14. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-70, March.
  15. G. William Schwert, 1990. "Stock Volatility and the Crash of '87," NBER Working Papers 2954, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Davidson, James, 2004. "Moment and Memory Properties of Linear Conditional Heteroscedasticity Models, and a New Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 22(1), pages 16-29, January.
  17. Ruiz, Esther & Veiga, Helena, 2008. "Modelling long-memory volatilities with leverage effect: A-LMSV versus FIEGARCH," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 2846-2862, February.
  18. Hyun J. Jin & Darren L. Frechette, 2004. "Fractional Integration in Agricultural Futures Price Volatilities," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 86(2), pages 432-443.
  19. Peter S. Sephton, 2009. "Fractional integration in agricultural futures price volatilities revisited," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 40(1), pages 103-111, 01.
  20. Ding, Zhuanxin & Granger, Clive W. J. & Engle, Robert F., 1993. "A long memory property of stock market returns and a new model," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 83-106, June.
  21. Y. K. Tse, 1998. "The conditional heteroscedasticity of the yen-dollar exchange rate," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(1), pages 49-55.
  22. Baillie, Richard T. & Bollerslev, Tim & Mikkelsen, Hans Ole, 1996. "Fractionally integrated generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 3-30, September.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tky:fseres:2009cf680. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (CIRJE administrative office)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.