IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v2y2009i2p320-339d5107.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Ethanol, Corn, and Soybean Price Relations in a Volatile Vehicle-Fuels Market

Author

Listed:
  • Zibin Zhang

    (Economics, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310027, China)

  • Luanne Lohr

    (Agricultural and Applied Economics, University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602, USA)

  • Cesar Escalante

    (Agricultural and Applied Economics, University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602, USA)

  • Michael Wetzstein

    (Agricultural and Applied Economics, University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602, USA)

Abstract

The rapid upward shift in ethanol demand has raised concerns about ethanol’s impact on the price level and volatility of agricultural commodities. The popular press attributes much of this volatility in commodity prices to a price bubble in ethanol fuel and recent deflation. Market economics predicts not only a softening of demand to high commodity prices but also a positive supply response. This volatility in ethanol and commodity prices are investigated using cointegration, vector error corrections (VECM), and multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedascity (MGARCH) models. In terms of derived demand theory, results support ethanol and oil demands as derived demands from vehicle-fuel production. Gasoline prices directly influence the prices of ethanol and oil. However, of greater significance for the fuel versus food security issue, results support the effect of agricultural commodity prices as market signals which restore commodity markets to their equilibriums after a demand or supply event (shock). Such shocks may in the short-run increase agricultural commodity prices, but decentralized freely operating markets will mitigate the persistence of these shocks. Results indicate in recent years there are no long-run relations among fuel (ethanol, oil and gasoline) prices and agricultural commodity (corn and soybean) prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Zibin Zhang & Luanne Lohr & Cesar Escalante & Michael Wetzstein, 2009. "Ethanol, Corn, and Soybean Price Relations in a Volatile Vehicle-Fuels Market," Energies, MDPI, vol. 2(2), pages 1-20, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:2:y:2009:i:2:p:320-339:d:5107
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/2/2/320/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/2/2/320/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Engle, Robert F. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(1), pages 122-150, February.
    2. Michael LeBlanc & Anthony Prato, 1983. "Ethanol Production from Grain in the United States: Agricultural Impacts and Economic Feasibility," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 31(2), pages 223-232, July.
    3. Adrangi, Bahram & Chatrath, Arjun & Raffiee, Kambiz & D. Ripple, Ronald, 2001. "Alaska North Slope crude oil price and the behavior of diesel prices in California," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 29-42, January.
    4. Steven B. Webb, 1981. "The Impact of Increased Alcohol Production on Agriculture: A Simulation Study," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 63(3), pages 532-537.
    5. Robert S. Pindyck, 1999. "The Long-Run Evolutions of Energy Prices," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 1-27.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lochhead, Kyle & Ghafghazi, Saeed & Havlik, Petr & Forsell, Nicklas & Obersteiner, Michael & Bull, Gary & Mabee, Warren, 2016. "Price trends and volatility scenarios for designing forest sector transformation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 184-191.
    2. Klein, Tony, 2018. "Trends and contagion in WTI and Brent crude oil spot and futures markets - The role of OPEC in the last decade," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 636-646.
    3. Jihed Majdoub & Walid Mansour & Islem Arrak, 2018. "Volatility Spillover among Equity Indices and Crude Oil Prices: Evidence from Islamic Markets امتداد التقلب بين مؤشرات الأسهم وأسعار النفط الخام: شواهد من الأسواق الإسلامية," Journal of King Abdulaziz University: Islamic Economics, King Abdulaziz University, Islamic Economics Institute., vol. 31(1), pages 27-45, January.
    4. Halkos, George & Tzirivis, Apostolos, 2018. "Effective energy commodities’ risk management: Econometric modeling of price volatility," MPRA Paper 90781, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Klein, Tony, 2018. "Trends and Contagion in WTI and Brent Crude Oil Spot and Futures Markets - The Role of OPEC in the last Decade," QBS Working Paper Series 2018/05, Queen's University Belfast, Queen's Business School.
    6. repec:abd:kauiea:v:31:y:2018:i:1:p:27-45 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Xiarchos, Irene M. & Fletcher, Jerald J., 2009. "Price and volatility transmission between primary and scrap metal markets," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 53(12), pages 664-673.
    8. Han, Chulwoo & Park, Frank C., 2022. "A geometric framework for covariance dynamics," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    9. Jonas Mockus, 2010. "On simulation of optimal strategies and Nash equilibrium in the financial market context," Journal of Global Optimization, Springer, vol. 48(1), pages 129-143, September.
    10. Xu, Haifeng & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2012. "Dynamic linkages of stock prices between the BRICs and the United States: Effects of the 2008–09 financial crisis," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 344-352.
    11. Li, Yuming, 1998. "Expected stock returns, risk premiums and volatilities of economic factors1," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 69-97, June.
    12. Guochang Wang & Wai Keung Li & Ke Zhu, 2018. "New HSIC-based tests for independence between two stationary multivariate time series," Papers 1804.09866, arXiv.org.
    13. Cavit Pakel & Neil Shephard & Kevin Sheppard & Robert F. Engle, 2021. "Fitting Vast Dimensional Time-Varying Covariance Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(3), pages 652-668, July.
    14. Ito, Akitoshi, 1999. "Profits on technical trading rules and time-varying expected returns: evidence from Pacific-Basin equity markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 7(3-4), pages 283-330, August.
    15. Anders Johansson, 2009. "An analysis of dynamic risk in the Greater China equity markets," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(3), pages 299-320.
    16. Haugom, Erik & Mydland, Ørjan & Pichler, Alois, 2016. "Long term oil prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 84-94.
    17. Zeynel Abidin Ozdemir, 2010. "Dynamics Of Inflation, Output Growth And Their Uncertainty In The Uk: An Empirical Analysis," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 78(6), pages 511-537, December.
    18. He, Hui & Yang, Jiawen, 2011. "Regime-switching analysis of ADR home market pass-through," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 204-214, January.
    19. Abu S. Amin & Lucjan T. Orlowski, 2014. "Returns, Volatilities, and Correlations Across Mature, Regional, and Frontier Markets: Evidence from South Asia," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(3), pages 5-27, May.
    20. Fu Qiao & Yan Yan, 2020. "A Demand-Oriented Industry-Specific Volatility Spillover Network Analysis of China’s Stock Market around the Outbreak of COVID-19," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 10(11), pages 1321-1341, November.
    21. Jin, Xiaoye, 2015. "Volatility transmission and volatility impulse response functions among the Greater China stock markets," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 43-58.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:2:y:2009:i:2:p:320-339:d:5107. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.