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An Analysis Of Dynamic Risk In The Greater China Equity Markets

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Abstract

This study looks at the time-varying nature of systematic risk in the Greater China equity markets. The Shanghai and Shenzhen markets both have a low average systematic risk when measured against the world market. The short outbursts in systematic risk for these two markets seem to be directly related to policy shifts. The Hong Kong and Taiwan markets are more integrated with world markets and they show signs of large variations in systematic risk over time. Furthermore, conditional betas in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets are stationary, while the Hong Kong and Taiwan betas are integrated of order one. In addition, long memory tests show that all four markets exhibit a long-run dependence in their conditional betas. While the two mainland China market betas are covariance stationary, the Hong Kong and Taiwan betas are not.

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  • Johansson, Anders C., 2009. "An Analysis Of Dynamic Risk In The Greater China Equity Markets," Working Paper Series 2009-5, Stockholm School of Economics, China Economic Research Center.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:hacerc:2009-005
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    Cited by:

    1. Johansson, Anders C., 2010. "Asian sovereign debt and country risk," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 335-350, September.
    2. Anders C. Johansson, 2011. "Financial Markets in East Asia and Europe during the Global Financial Crisis," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34, pages 1088-1105, July.
    3. Anders Johansson, 2010. "China's financial market integration with the world," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(3), pages 293-314.
    4. Liu, Lu, 2014. "Extreme downside risk spillover from the United States and Japan to Asia-Pacific stock markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 39-48.
    5. Li, Johnny Siu-Hang & Ng, Andrew C.Y. & Chan, Wai-Sum, 2015. "Managing financial risk in Chinese stock markets: Option pricing and modeling under a multivariate threshold autoregression," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 217-230.
    6. Qiwei Chen & Ying Jiang & Yuan Li, 2012. "The state of the market and the contrarian strategy: evidence from China's stock market," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(1), pages 89-108, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    China; Taiwan; Hong Kong; time-varying beta; GARCH; unit roots; long memory;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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