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Asian Sovereign Debt and Country Risk

  • Johansson, Anders C.

    ()

    (China Economic Research Center)

This paper analyzes systematic risk of sovereign bonds in four East Asian countries: China, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand. A bivariate stochastic volatility model that allows for time-varying correlation is estimated with Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation. The volatilities and correlation are then used to calculate the time-varying betas. The results show that country-specific systematic risk in Asian sovereign bonds varies over time. When adjusting for inherent exchange rate risk, the pattern of systematic risk is similar, even though the level is generally lower. The findings have important implications for international portfolio managers that invest in emerging sovereign bonds and those who need benchmark instruments to analyze risk in assets such as corporate bonds in the emerging Asian financial markets.

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File URL: http://swopec.hhs.se/hacerc/papers/hacerc2009-011.pdf
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Paper provided by China Economic Research Center, Stockholm School of Economics in its series Working Paper Series with number 2009-11.

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Length: 36 pages
Date of creation: 01 Dec 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:hacerc:2009-011
Contact details of provider: Postal: China Economic Research Center, Stockholm School of Economics, P.O. Box 6501, 113 83 Stockholm, Sweden
Phone: +46-8-736 90 00
Fax: +46-8-31 81 86
Web page: http://www.hhs.se/en/Research/Institutes/SCERI/

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