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The Relationship between Oil, Exchange Rates, and Commodity Prices

Author

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  • Harri, Ardian
  • Nalley, Lawton Lanier
  • Hudson, Darren

Abstract

Exchange rates have long been thought to have an important impact on the export and import of goods and services, and, thus, exchange rates are expected to influence the price of those products that are traded. At the same time, energy impacts commodity production in some very important ways. The use of chemical and petroleum derived inputs has increased in agriculture over time; the prices of these critical inputs, then, would be expected to alter supply, and, therefore, the prices of commodities using these inputs. Also, agricultural commodities have been increasingly used to produce energy, thereby leading to an expectation of a linkage between energy and commodity markets. In this paper, we examine the price relationship through time of the primary agricultural commodities, exchange rates, and oil prices. Using overlapping time periods, we examine the cointegration relationship between prices to determine changes in the strength of the linkage between markets through time. In general, we find that commodity prices are linked to oil for corn, cotton, and soybeans, but not for wheat, and that exchange rates do play a role in the linkage of prices over time.

Suggested Citation

  • Harri, Ardian & Nalley, Lawton Lanier & Hudson, Darren, 2009. "The Relationship between Oil, Exchange Rates, and Commodity Prices," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 41(02), August.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:joaaec:53095
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    Keywords

    cointegration; commodity prices; crude oil; exchange rates; Agribusiness; Consumer/Household Economics; International Relations/Trade; Marketing; Production Economics; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; C32; L71; Q11; Q40;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • L71 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Primary Products and Construction - - - Mining, Extraction, and Refining: Hydrocarbon Fuels
    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices
    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General

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