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The role of speculation in international futures markets on commodity prices

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  • Huchet, Nicolas
  • Fam, Papa Gueye

Abstract

The role of futures contracts on spot prices has been one of the key focus areas of research since the recent surge in commodity prices and increase in the volatility of commodity returns. However, no consensus arises from this literature, and hence it is difficult to link the use of futures contracts in agricultural commodities by non-hedgers and the growing food insecurity within developing countries. The purpose of this paper is to highlight causal relationships from futures contracts to spot prices of underlying assets, namely agricultural commodities. As research that focus on exchange-traded funds do not provide any clear conclusions, we focus on the imbalance between short- and long-open positions, this imbalance being caused by the exchange traded funds’ participation in futures markets. In this paper, we estimate relationships between financial variables including indicators for speculation in futures markets and the returns of cocoa, corn, soybean, wheat, coffee, rice, and sugar on a weekly basis from 1998 to 2013. Significant results lead to Granger-causality tests that in turn validate the hypothesis of a positive impact of speculation in futures markets to returns on the underlying commodities.

Suggested Citation

  • Huchet, Nicolas & Fam, Papa Gueye, 2016. "The role of speculation in international futures markets on commodity prices," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 49-65.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:37:y:2016:i:c:p:49-65
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ribaf.2015.09.034
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Shank, Corey A. & Vianna, Andre C., 2016. "Are US-Dollar-Hedged-ETF investors aggressive on exchange rates? A panel VAR approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 430-438.
    2. Baldi, Lucia & Peri, Massimo & Vandone, Daniela, 2016. "Stock markets’ bubbles burst and volatility spillovers in agricultural commodity markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 277-285.
    3. repec:eee:jrpoli:v:54:y:2017:i:c:p:58-70 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Karyotis, Catherine & Alijani, Sharam, 2016. "Soft commodities and the global financial crisis: Implications for the economy, resources and institutions," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 350-359.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Agricultural commodities; Futures markets; Financialization; Asset returns;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • Q14 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Finance

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