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Communication matters: US monetary policy and commodity price volatility

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  • Hayo, Bernd
  • Kutan, Ali M.
  • Neuenkirch, Matthias

Abstract

We analyze the influence of US monetary policy on commodity price volatility. Expected target rate changes and communications decrease volatility, whereas target rate surprises and unorthodox measures increase it. The “calming” effect of communication is reduced during the financial crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Hayo, Bernd & Kutan, Ali M. & Neuenkirch, Matthias, 2012. "Communication matters: US monetary policy and commodity price volatility," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(1), pages 247-249.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:117:y:2012:i:1:p:247-249
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2012.05.018
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    5. Bernd Hayo & Ali M. Kutan & Matthias Neuenkirch, 2008. "Financial Market Reaction to Federal Reserve Communications: Does the Crisis Make a Difference?," MAGKS Papers on Economics 200808, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    6. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Eijffinger, S.C.W. & Mahieu, R.J. & Raes, L.B.D., 2012. "Can the Fed talk the Hind Legs off the Stock Market? (replaces CentER DP 2011-072)," Discussion Paper 2012-012, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    2. Nicholas Apergis & Chritina Christou & Tasawar Hayat & Tareq Saeed, 2020. "U.S. Monetary Policy and Herding: Evidence from Commodity Markets," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 48(3), pages 355-374, September.
    3. Marinella Davide & Paola Vesco, 2016. "Alternative Approaches for Rating INDCs: a Comparative Analysis," Working Papers 2016.18, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    4. Edward Knapp & Jason Loughrey, 2017. "The single farm payment and income risk in Irish farms 2005–2013," Agricultural and Food Economics, Springer;Italian Society of Agricultural Economics (SIDEA), vol. 5(1), pages 1-15, December.
    5. Ye, Wuyi & Guo, Ranran & Deschamps, Bruno & Jiang, Ying & Liu, Xiaoquan, 2021. "Macroeconomic forecasts and commodity futures volatility," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 981-994.
    6. Hardik A. Marfatia & Rangan Gupta & Esin Cakan, 2019. "Dynamic Impact of the U.S. Monetary Policy on Oil Market Returns and Volatility," Working Papers 201916, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    7. Emiliano Magrini & Ayca Donmez, 2013. "Agricultural Commodity Price Volatility and Its Macroeconomic Determinants: A GARCH-MIDAS Approach," JRC Working Papers JRC84138, Joint Research Centre (Seville site).
    8. Gomis-Porqueras, Pedro & Rafiq, Shuddhasattwa & Yao, Wenying, 2020. "The Impact of Forward Guidance and Large-scale Asset Purchase Programs on Commodity Markets," MPRA Paper 102781, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Mo, Di & Gupta, Rakesh & Li, Bin & Singh, Tarlok, 2018. "The macroeconomic determinants of commodity futures volatility: Evidence from Chinese and Indian markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 543-560.
    10. Stephanos Papadamou & Vasilios Sogiakas, 2018. "The informational content of unconventional monetary policy on precious metal markets," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(1), pages 16-36, January.
    11. Rosa, Carlo, 2014. "The high-frequency response of energy prices to U.S. monetary policy: Understanding the empirical evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 295-303.
    12. Behmiri, Niaz Bashiri & Manera, Matteo & Nicolini, Marcella, 2016. "Understanding Dynamic Conditional Correlations between Commodities Futures Markets," ESP: Energy Scenarios and Policy 232223, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    13. Huchet, Nicolas & Fam, Papa Gueye, 2016. "The role of speculation in international futures markets on commodity prices," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 49-65.
    14. Sylvester Eijffinger & Ronald Mahieu & Louis Raes, 2017. "Can the Fed Talk the Hind Legs Off the Stock Market?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 13(1), pages 53-94, February.
    15. Ojogho, Osaihiomwan & Egware, Robert Awotu, 2015. "Price Generating Process And Volatility In Nigerian Agricultural Commodities Market," International Journal of Food and Agricultural Economics (IJFAEC), Alanya Alaaddin Keykubat University, Department of Economics and Finance, vol. 3(4), pages 1-10, October.
    16. Suranjana Joarder, 2018. "The Commodity Futures Volatility and Macroeconomic Fundamentals - The Case of Oil and Oilseed Commodities in India," International Econometric Review (IER), Econometric Research Association, vol. 10(2), pages 33-50, September.
    17. Manera, Matteo & Nicolini, Marcella & Vignati, Ilaria, 2016. "Modelling futures price volatility in energy markets: Is there a role for financial speculation?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 220-229.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Central bank communication; Commodities; Federal Reserve; Monetary policy; Price volatility;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • Q10 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - General
    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General

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