Federal Reserve Communications and Emerging Equity Markets
Work on the impact of U.S. monetary policy on emerging financial markets mostly focuses on official federal funds rate announcements; empirical evidence using data on informal communication channels, such as speeches, is scant. Employing a unique data set covering formal and informal communication channels in a GARCH model framework, we provide comprehensive evidence on the effects of U.S. monetary policy on 17 emerging equity market returns over the period 1998–2009. We find, first, that both monetary policy actions and communications have a significant impact on market returns. Second, target rate change surprises are an important driver of emerging market returns. However, informal communications—particularly when taking into account their higher frequency—have a larger (cumulative) influence on returns than do target rate surprises. Third, during the financial crisis, central bank communication plays an even more pronounced role. Finally, American emerging markets react more to U.S. central bank communications than do non-American markets. We discuss the policy implications of the findings.
|Date of creation:||2009|
|Publication status:||Forthcoming in|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Universitätsstraße 25, 35037 Marburg|
Web page: http://www.uni-marburg.de/fb02/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Doornik, Jurgen A. & Ooms, Marius, 2008. "Multimodality in GARCH regression models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 432-448.
- Patrice Robitaille & Jennifer E. Roush, 2006. "How do FOMC actions and U.S. macroeconomic data announcements move Brazilian sovereign yield spreads and stock prices?," International Finance Discussion Papers 868, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2004.
"The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
Oxford University Press, vol. 119(1), pages 1-48.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2002. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," NBER Working Papers 8963, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2004. "The modern history of exchange rate arrangements: A reinterpretation," MPRA Paper 14070, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2009. "Global Financial Transmission of Monetary Policy Shocks," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(6), pages 739-759, December.
- Ehrmann, Michael & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2006. "Global financial transmission of monetary policy shocks," Working Paper Series 0616, European Central Bank.
- Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2006. "Global Financial Transmission of Monetary Policy Shocks," CESifo Working Paper Series 1710, CESifo Group Munich.
- Mitchel Y. Abolafia (ed.), 2005. "Markets," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 2788.
- Hayo, Bernd & Kutan, Ali M., 2005. "IMF-related news and emerging financial markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(7), pages 1126-1142, November.
- Glosten, Lawrence R & Jagannathan, Ravi & Runkle, David E, 1993. " On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1779-1801, December.
- Lawrence R. Glosten & Ravi Jagannathan & David E. Runkle, 1993. "On the relation between the expected value and the volatility of the nominal excess return on stocks," Staff Report 157, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Engle, Robert F & Ng, Victor K, 1993. " Measuring and Testing the Impact of News on Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1749-1778, December.
- Robert F. Engle & Victor K. Ng, 1991. "Measuring and Testing the Impact of News on Volatility," NBER Working Papers 3681, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
- Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
- Andritzky, Jochen R. & Bannister, Geoffrey J. & Tamirisa, Natalia T., 2007. "The impact of macroeconomic announcements on emerging market bonds," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 20-37, March.
- Bernd Hayo & Ali M. Kutan & Matthias Neuenkirch, 2008. "Financial Market Reaction to Federal Reserve Communications: Does the Crisis Make a Difference?," MAGKS Papers on Economics 200808, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
- Bernd Hayo & Matthias Neuenkirch, 2013. "Does the currency board matter? US news and Argentine financial market reaction," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(28), pages 4034-4040, October.
- Bernd Hayo & Matthias Neuenkirch, 2008. "Does the Currency Board Matter? U.S. News and Argentine Financial Market Reaction," MAGKS Papers on Economics 200823, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
- Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2007. "Communication by Central Bank Committee Members: Different Strategies, Same Effectiveness?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(2-3), pages 509-541, 03.
- David Büttner & Bernd Hayo & Matthias Neuenkirch, 2012. "The impact of foreign macroeconomic news on financial markets in the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 39(1), pages 19-44, February.
- David Büttner & Bernd Hayo & Matthias Neuenkirch, 2009. "The Impact of Foreign Macroeconomic News on Financial Markets in the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland," MAGKS Papers on Economics 200903, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
- Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)