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News and Interest Rate Expectations: A Study of Six Central Banks

Author

Listed:
  • Ellis Connolly

    (Reserve Bank of Australia)

  • Marion Kohler

    (Reserve Bank of Australia)

Abstract

In this paper we analyse the effect of news relating to the expected path of monetary policy on interest rate futures. Central banks’ transparency is in most respects much greater than it was a decade ago, and so central bank communication needs to be included as a potential source of news. We therefore consider four types of news: macroeconomic news, overseas news, monetary policy surprises and central bank communication. The effect of these types of news on daily changes in interest rate futures is estimated using an EGARCH model for a panel of six economies. We find that interest rate expectations respond to both macroeconomic and policy news, although the response to macroeconomic news is larger, especially once we include foreign news. Overall, the results suggest that the impact of the RBA’s communication policy is in line with other major central banks, and significantly influences (and informs) expectations of future monetary policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Ellis Connolly & Marion Kohler, 2004. "News and Interest Rate Expectations: A Study of Six Central Banks," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2004-10, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  • Handle: RePEc:rba:rbardp:rdp2004-10
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ullrich, Katrin, 2008. "Inflation expectations of experts and ECB communication," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 93-108, March.
    2. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Jakob De Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2008. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(4), pages 910-945, December.
    3. C.Jardet & A. Monks, 2014. "Euro Area monetary policy shocks: impact on financial asset prices during the crisis?," Working papers 512, Banque de France.
    4. Marek Rozkrut, 2008. "It’s not only WHAT is said, it’s also WHO the speaker is. Evaluating the effectiveness of central bank communication," NBP Working Papers 47, Narodowy Bank Polski, Economic Research Department.
    5. Sahminan Sahminan, 2008. "Effectiveness of monetary policy communication in Indonesia and Thailand," BIS Working Papers 262, Bank for International Settlements.
    6. Neuenkirch, Matthias, 2012. "Managing financial market expectations: The role of central bank transparency and central bank communication," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 1-13.
    7. repec:bpj:bejmac:v:17:y:2017:i:1:p:41:n:7 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Caldas M., Gabriel, 2012. "Financial market reaction to central bank monetary policy communications under an inflation- targeting regime: the case of Brazil," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), August.
    9. Pierre L. Siklos & Martin T. Bohl, 2008. "Policy words and policy deeds: the ECB and the euro," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(3), pages 247-265.
    10. Adrian Cantemir Călin, 2015. "Eloquence is The Key – the Impact of Monetary Policy Speeches on Exchange Rate Volatility," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 18(56), pages 3-18, June,.
    11. repec:lde:journl:y:2017:i:87:p:67-95 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Hubert Paul, 2017. "Qualitative and quantitative central bank communication and inflation expectations," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 17(1), pages 1-41, January.
    13. Péter Gábriel & Klára Pintér, 2006. "The effect of the MNB’s communication on financial markets," MNB Working Papers 2006/9, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    14. Islas C., Alejandro & Cortez, Willy Walter, 2012. "Mexico: what is the impact of monetary policy on unemployment rates?," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), August.
    15. Tambini, Damian, 2010. "What are financial journalists for?," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 28840, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    16. Iris Biefang-Frisancho Mariscal & Peter Howells, 2007. "Central bank communication, transparency and interest rate volatility: Evidence from the USA," Working Papers 0704, Department of Accounting, Economics and Finance, Bristol Business School, University of the West of England, Bristol.
    17. Jakob Haan, 2008. "The effect of ECB communication on interest rates: An assessment," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 3(4), pages 375-398, December.
    18. Tuysuz, Sukriye, 2007. "The asymmetric impact of macroeconomic announcements on U.S. Government bond rate level and volatility," MPRA Paper 5381, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Rozkrut, Marek & Rybinski, Krzysztof & Sztaba, Lucyna & Szwaja, Radoslaw, 2007. "Quest for central bank communication: Does it pay to be "talkative"?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 176-206, March.
    20. Moessner, Richhild & Allen, William A., 2013. "Central bank swap line effectiveness during the euro area sovereign debt crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 167-178.
    21. Lucian Liviu Albu & Radu Lupu & Adrian Cantemir Călin, 2016. "Impact Of FOMC Official Speeches on the Intraday Dynamics of CDS Markets," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 5-12, June.
    22. Tuysuz, Sukriye, 2007. "The effects of a greater central bank credibility on interest rates level and volatility response to news in the U.K," MPRA Paper 5263, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    23. Reeves, Rachel & Sawicki, Michael, 2007. "Do financial markets react to Bank of England communication?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 207-227, March.
    24. repec:col:000174:015708 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    central bank communication; news; interest rate futures;

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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