News and Interest Rate Expectations: A Study of Six Central Banks
In this paper we analyse the effect of news relating to the expected path of monetary policy on interest rate futures. Central banks’ transparency is in most respects much greater than it was a decade ago, and so central bank communication needs to be included as a potential source of news. We therefore consider four types of news: macroeconomic news, overseas news, monetary policy surprises and central bank communication. The effect of these types of news on daily changes in interest rate futures is estimated using an EGARCH model for a panel of six economies. We find that interest rate expectations respond to both macroeconomic and policy news, although the response to macroeconomic news is larger, especially once we include foreign news. Overall, the results suggest that the impact of the RBA’s communication policy is in line with other major central banks, and significantly influences (and informs) expectations of future monetary policy.
|Date of creation:||Nov 2004|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: GPO Box 3947, Sydney NSW 2001|
Web page: http://www.rba.gov.au/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Nolan, C. & Chadha, J.S., 1999.
"Inflation Targeting, Transparency and Interest Rate Volatility: Ditching 'Monetary Mystique' in the UK,"
Cambridge Working Papers in Economics
9921, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Chadha, Jagjit S. & Nolan, Charles, 2001. "Inflation Targeting, Transparency and Interest Rate Volatility: Ditching Monetary Mystique in the U.K," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 349-366, July.
- D. Jansen & J. de Haan, 2003.
"Statements of ECB Officials and their Effect on the Level and Volatility of the Euro-Dollar Exchange Rate,"
WO Research Memoranda (discontinued)
726, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
- David-Jan Jansen & Jakob de Haan, 2003. "Statements of ECB Officials and their Effect on the Level and Volatility of the Euro-Dollar Exchange Rate," CESifo Working Paper Series 927, CESifo Group Munich.
- Kim, Suk-Joong & Sheen, Jeffrey, 1998.
"International Linkages and Macroeconomic News Effects on Interest Rate Volatility - Australia and the US',"
11, University of Sydney, School of Economics.
- Kim, Suk-Joong & Sheen, Jeffrey, 2000. "International linkages and macroeconomic news effects on interest rate volatility -- Australia and the US," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 85-113, March.
- Michael J. Fleming & Eli M. Remolona, 1997.
"What moves the bond market?,"
9706, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
- Tim Bollerslev, 1986.
"Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity,"
EERI Research Paper Series
EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
- Param Silvapulle & Robert Pereira & J.H.H. Lee, 1993.
"The Impact of Inflation Rate Announcements on the Interest Rate Volatility: Australian Evidence,"
1993.26, School of Economics, La Trobe University.
- Param Silvapulle & Robert Pereira & J.H.H. Lee, 1993. "The Impact of Inflation Rate Announcements on the Interest Rate Volatility: Australian Evidence," Working Papers 1993.26, School of Economics, La Trobe University.
- Pierre L. Siklos, 2003. "Assessing the Impact of Changes in Transparency and Accountability at the Bank of Canada," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 29(3), pages 279-299, September.
- Toni Gravelle & Richhild Moessner, 2001. "Reactions of Canadian Interest Rates to Macroeconomic Announcements: Implications for Monetary Policy Transparency," Staff Working Papers 01-5, Bank of Canada.
- Petra M. Geraats, 2002. "Central Bank Transparency," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(483), pages 532-565, November.
- Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2000.
"Monetary policy surprises and interest rates: evidence from the Fed funds futures markets,"
99, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Kuttner, Kenneth N., 2001. "Monetary policy surprises and interest rates: Evidence from the Fed funds futures market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 523-544, June.
- Param Silvapulle & Robert Pereira & John Lee, 1997. "The impact of inflation rate announcements on interest rate volatility: Australian evidence," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(5), pages 559-566.
- Jonathan Coppel & Ellis Connolly, 2003. "What Do Financial Market Data Tell Us about Monetary Policy Transparency?," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2003-05, Reserve Bank of Australia.
- Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2003.
"Interdependence between the Euro area and the U.S.: what role for EMU?,"
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Ehrmann, Michael & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2002. "Interdependence between the euro area and the US: what role for EMU?," Working Paper Series 0200, European Central Bank.
- Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-370, March.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rba:rbardp:rdp2004-10. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Paula Drew)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.