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What Do Financial Market Data Tell Us about Monetary Policy Transparency?

Author

Listed:
  • Jonathan Coppel

    (Reserve Bank of Australia)

  • Ellis Connolly

    (Reserve Bank of Australia)

Abstract

This paper attempts to discern from financial market data the impact of greater monetary policy transparency over the period since the late 1980s. We examine whether interest rate variability has changed, the degree to which financial markets anticipate policy moves and movements in the yield curve at the time of changes in monetary policy. Where possible, we compare the results for Australia with other countries. We find that interest rate volatility at the short end has fallen dramatically since the late 1980s. The extent to which market participants anticipate changes in the policy rate has gradually risen, as has the speed of reaction to interest rate announcements. Since the late 1990s, bill futures contract prices have responded to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) commentaries on the economy. These results are consistent with an increase in the efficiency with which the market digests economic news. The results are quite similar across countries, and it is difficult to isolate from cross-country data any specific preferred model of monetary policy transparency.

Suggested Citation

  • Jonathan Coppel & Ellis Connolly, 2003. "What Do Financial Market Data Tell Us about Monetary Policy Transparency?," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2003-05, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  • Handle: RePEc:rba:rbardp:rdp2003-05
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    File URL: https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2003/pdf/rdp2003-05.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mardi Dungey & Ben Hayward, 2000. "Dating Changes in Monetary Policy in Australia," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 33(3), pages 281-285.
    2. Daniel C. Hardy, 1998. "Anticipation and Surprises in Central Bank Interest Rate Policy: The Case of the Bundesbank," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(4), pages 647-671, December.
    3. Frank Campbell & Eleanor Lewis, 1998. "What Moves Yields in Australia?," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9808, Reserve Bank of Australia.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Petra M. Geraats & Sylvester C.W. Eijffinger & Carin A.B. van der Cruijsen, 2006. "Does Central Bank Transparency Reduce Interest Rates?," DNB Working Papers 085, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    2. Lyziak, Tomasz & Mackiewicz, Joanna & Stanislawska, Ewa, 2007. "Central bank transparency and credibility: The case of Poland, 1998-2004," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 67-87, March.
    3. Ellis Connolly & Marion Kohler, 2004. "News and Interest Rate Expectations: A Study of Six Central Banks," RBA Annual Conference Volume,in: Christopher Kent & Simon Guttmann (ed.), The Future of Inflation Targeting Reserve Bank of Australia.
    4. van der Cruijsen, Carin & Demertzis, Maria, 2007. "The impact of central bank transparency on inflation expectations," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 51-66, March.
    5. Neuenkirch, Matthias, 2012. "Managing financial market expectations: The role of central bank transparency and central bank communication," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 1-13.
    6. Indranil Bhattacharyya & Mohua Roy & Himanshu Joshi & Michael Patra, 2009. "Money market microstructure and monetary policy: the Indian experience," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(1), pages 59-77.
    7. M.H. Middeldorp, 2011. "FOMC Communication Policy and the Accuracy of Fed Funds Futures," Working Papers 11-13, Utrecht School of Economics.
    8. Bjørn-Roger Wilhelmsen & Andrea Zaghini, 2011. "Monetary policy predictability in the euro area: an international comparison," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(20), pages 2533-2544.
    9. Eichler, Stefan & Littke, Helge C.N. & Tonzer, Lena, 2017. "Central bank transparency and cross-border banking," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 1-30.
    10. Neuenkirch, Matthias, 2013. "Central bank transparency and financial market expectations: The case of emerging markets," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 598-609.
    11. Carin van der Cruijsen & Sylvester Eijffinger, 2007. "The economic impact of central bank transparency: a survey," DNB Working Papers 132, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    12. Bryan Chapple, 2006. "Monetary policy strategies and credibility - theory and practice," DNB Occasional Studies 404, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    13. Lavan Mahadeva, 2007. "A model of market surprises," Bank of England working papers 327, Bank of England.
    14. TUYSUZ, Sukriye, 2007. "Central Bank transparency and the U.S. interest rates level and volatility response to U.S. news," MPRA Paper 5217, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Tuysuz, Sukriye, 2007. "The asymmetric impact of macroeconomic announcements on U.S. Government bond rate level and volatility," MPRA Paper 5381, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. repec:lde:journl:y:2017:i:87:p:67-95 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. M. Middeldorp, 2011. "Central Bank Transparency, the Accuracy of Professional Forecasts, and Interest Rate Volatility," Working Papers 11-12, Utrecht School of Economics.
    18. Aleksandar Murdzhev & Marc Tomljanovich, 2006. "What Color is Alan Greenspan's Tie? How Central Bank Policy Announcements Have Changed Financial Markets," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 32(4), pages 571-593, Fall.
    19. van der Cruijsen, C.A.B., 2008. "The economic impact of central bank transparency," Other publications TiSEM 86c1ba91-1952-45b4-adac-8, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    20. Saurabh Ghosh & Indranil Bhattacharyya, 2009. "Spread, volatility and monetary policy: empirical evidence from the Indian overnight money market," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(2), pages 257-277.
    21. repec:col:000174:015708 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    transparency; monetary policy; accountability; central banking;

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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