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Monetary Policy Transparency:Lessons from Germany and the Eurozone

  • Iris Biefang-Frisancho Mariscal

    (School of Economics, University of the West of England)

  • Peter Howells

    ()

    (School of Economics, University of the West of England)

The conduct of monetary policy emphasises institutional arrangements which make monetary policy decision-making more ‘transparent’. Judged by these institutional features neither the Bundesbank, nor the ECB, score very highly. We test for (i) agents’ average ability to anticipate policy rate changes under the Bundesbank and the ECB and (ii) and agents’ forecasting unanimity of money market rates. Rising forecasting uncertainty may either be due to a lack of ECB transparency or to larger inflation and growth forecasting errors. Our results indicate that inflation forecast spreads widened amongst private agents and that inflation forecasting uncertainty increased the forecasting spread of money market rates

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File URL: http://carecon.org.uk/DPs/0410.pdf
File Function: First version, 2004
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Paper provided by Department of Accounting, Economics and Finance, Bristol Business School, University of the West of England, Bristol in its series Working Papers with number 0410.

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Length: 18 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:uwe:wpaper:0410
Contact details of provider: Postal: 0117 328 3610
Phone: 0117 328 3610
Web page: http://www1.uwe.ac.uk/bl/research/bristoleconomics.aspx

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  1. Hardy, Daniel C., 1996. "Market reaction to changes in German official interest rates," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 1996,04, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  2. Gabriel Pérez Quirós & Jorge Sicilia, 2002. "Is the European Central Bank (and the United States Federal Reserve) predictable?," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0229, Banco de Espa�a.
  3. Kuttner, Kenneth N., 2001. "Monetary policy surprises and interest rates: Evidence from the Fed funds futures market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 523-544, June.
  4. Andrew G Haldane & Vicky Read, 2000. "Monetary policy surprises and the yield curve," Bank of England working papers 106, Bank of England.
  5. Alesina, Alberto & Summers, Lawrence H, 1993. "Central Bank Independence and Macroeconomic Performance: Some Comparative Evidence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(2), pages 151-62, May.
  6. Kevin Ross, 2002. "Market Predictability of ECB Monetary Policy Decisions; A Comparative Examination," IMF Working Papers 02/233, International Monetary Fund.
  7. William Poole & Robert H & Rasche & Daniel L. Thornton, 2002. "Market anticipations of monetary policy actions," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 65-94.
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