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The CNB's Policy Decisions - Are They Priced in by the Markets?

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  • David Navratil
  • Viktor Kotlan

Abstract

This paper asks to what extent the market prices in the future monetary policy decisions of the Czech National Bank (CNB), how this policy predictability has evolved over time, and whether the change in the central bank's forecasting methodology in mid-2002 had any impact. Using a sample up to mid-2004, the results are threefold. First, three-quarters of the CNB's decisions were in line with medium-term money market expectations. Notwithstanding this relatively high predictability of CNB policy, the average mistake in the expectations was biased upwards: over the entire IT period the market has priced in a higher repo rate than has actually turned out to be the case. Second, our analysis shows that the period in which forecasts with an active monetary policy (unconditional forecasts) have been used is characterized by smaller 'surprises' of the money market. On the one hand, this may be connected with a change in the CNB's communication of the forecast, including releases of verbal comments on the interest rate trajectory that is consistent with the outlook. On the other hand, it may reflect a different economic environment in the second stage of IT in the Czech Republic. Third, we analyze whether there is convergence or divergence between the central bank's forecast-consistent interest rate trajectory and market forward rates. We show that in most cases market rates converged toward the CNB's interest rate trajectory after the publication of the forecast.

Suggested Citation

  • David Navratil & Viktor Kotlan, 2005. "The CNB's Policy Decisions - Are They Priced in by the Markets?," Research and Policy Notes 2005/01, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:cnb:rpnrpn:2005/01
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    File URL: http://www.cnb.cz/en/research/research_publications/irpn/download/irpn_1_2005.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Andrew G Haldane & Vicky Read, 2000. "Monetary policy surprises and the yield curve," Bank of England working papers 106, Bank of England.
    2. Kevin Ross, 2002. "Market Predictability of ECB Policy Decisions; A Comparative Examination," IMF Working Papers 02/233, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Richard Podpiera, 2000. "Czech Financial Market Efficiency in Light of Recent Interest Rate Cuts," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 50(5), pages 270-282, May.
    4. Pérez Quirós, Gabriel & Sicilia, Jorge, 2002. "Is the European Central Bank (and the United States Federal Reserve) predictable?," Working Paper Series 0192, European Central Bank.
    5. Pérez Quirós, Gabriel & Sicilia, Jorge, 2002. "Is the European Central Bank (and the United States Federal Reserve) predictable?," Working Paper Series 0192, European Central Bank.
    6. Roman Matousek, 2001. "Transparency and Credibility of Monetary Policy in Transition Countries: The Case of the Czech Republic," Zagreb International Review of Economics and Business, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb, vol. 4(2), pages 91-104, November.
    7. Michael Woodford, 2004. "Inflation targeting and optimal monetary policy," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 15-42.
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    Cited by:

    1. David Navrátil & Viktor Kotlán, 2005. "Is the CNB Predictable?," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 55(7-8), pages 333-343, July.
    2. Roman Horv??th, 2006. "Real-Time Time-Varying Equilibrium Interest Rates: Evidence on the Czech Republic," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp848, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    3. Jan Filáček & Branislav Saxa, 2012. "Central Bank Forecasts as a Coordination Device: Evidence from the Czech Republic," Czech Economic Review, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, vol. 6(3), pages 244-264, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial market reaction; inflation targeting; monetary policy predictability; term structure of interest rates.;

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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