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Monetary convergence of the EU candidates to the Euro: A theoretical framework and policy implications

  • Orlowski, Lucjan T.

A flexible approach to direct inflation targeting is a viable monetary policy choice for transition economies that is believed to facilitate both the economic transition and the monetary convergence to the euro. Following this assumption, an analytical model investigating the link between the inflation process and monetary variables in transition economies is advanced in this study. The empirical testing is conducted for Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary. The analysis recommends that the monetary convergence begins with inflation targeting and concludes with a full-fledged euroization. It further advocates the application of flexible benchmarks of monetary convergence that would accommodate various non-monetary factors affecting inflation in transition economies.

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Paper provided by ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies, University of Bonn in its series ZEI Working Papers with number B 25-2001.

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Date of creation: 2001
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:zeiwps:b252001
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  1. Svensson, Lars E.O., 1998. "Inflation Targeting as a Monetary Policy Rule," Seminar Papers 646, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
  2. Ali M. Kutan & Josef C. Brada, 1998. "The persistence of moderate inflation in the Czech Republic and the Koruna crisis of May 1997," Working Papers 1998-021, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  3. Svensson, Lars E.O., 1998. "Open-Economy Inflation Targeting," Seminar Papers 638, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
  4. Paul R. Masson, 1999. "Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy of Transition Economies of Central and Eastern Europe after the Launch of EMU," IMF Policy Discussion Papers 99/5, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Laurence M. Ball, 1999. "Policy Rules for Open Economies," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 127-156 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Orlowski, Lucjan T., 2001. "From inflation targeting to the euro-peg: A model of monetary convergence for transition economies," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 233-251, September.
  7. Andrew Haldane, 1997. "Some Issues in Inflation Targeting," Bank of England working papers 74, Bank of England.
  8. Francisco de A. Nadal-De Simone, 2001. "Inflation targeting in a small open economy: The behaviour of price variables," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(1), pages 101-142.
  9. Szapary, Gyorgy & Jakab, Zoltan M., 1998. "Exchange Rate Policy in Transition Economies: The Case of Hungary," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 691-717, December.
  10. Orlowski, Lucjan T., 2000. "A dynamic approach to inflation targeting in transition economies," ZEI Working Papers B 11-2000, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies, University of Bonn.
  11. Roman Matousek, 2001. "Transparency and Credibility of Monetary Policy in Transition Countries: The Case of the Czech Republic," Archive of Monetary Policy Division Working Papers 2001/37, Czech National Bank.
  12. Roman Matousek, 2001. "Transparency and Credibility of Monetary Policy in Transition Countries: The Case of the Czech Republic," Zagreb International Review of Economics and Business, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb, vol. 4(2), pages 91-104, November.
  13. Roberto Golinelli & Riccardo Rovelli, 2002. "Painless disinflation? Monetary policy rules in Hungary, 1991-99," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 10(1), pages 55-91, March.
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