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Monetary policy rules and inflation process in open emerging economies: evidence for 12 new EU members

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  • Borek Vasicek

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Abstract

This paper has three objectives. First, it aims at revealing the logic of interest rate setting pursued by monetary authorities of 12 new EU members. Using estimation of an augmented Taylor rule, we find that this setting was not always consistent with the official monetary policy. Second, we seek to shed light on the inflation process of these countries. To this end, we carry out an estimation of an open economy Philips curve (PC). Our main finding is that inflation rates were not only driven by backward persistency but also held a forward-looking component. Finally, we assess the viability of existing monetary arrangements for price stability. The analysis of the conditional inflation variance obtained from GARCH estimation of PC is used for this purpose. We conclude that inflation targeting is preferable to an exchange rate peg because it allowed decreasing the inflation rate and anchored its volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Borek Vasicek, 2009. "Monetary policy rules and inflation process in open emerging economies: evidence for 12 new EU members," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp968, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    • Handle: RePEc:wdi:papers:2009-968
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    Cited by:

    1. Katarína Danišková & Jarko Fidrmuc, 2011. "Inflation Convergence and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve in the Czech Republic," Czech Economic Review, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, vol. 5(2), pages 099-115, August.
    2. Vít Pošta, 2015. "Semi-structural estimates of time-varying NAIRU based on the new Keynesian Phillips curve: evidence from Eastern European economies," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(4), pages 1217-1243, December.
    3. Vašíček, Bořek, 2012. "Is monetary policy in the new EU member states asymmetric?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 235-263.
    4. Sushanta Mallick & Ricardo Sousa, 2013. "Commodity Prices, Inflationary Pressures, and Monetary Policy: Evidence from BRICS Economies," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 24(4), pages 677-694, September.
    5. Łukasz Goczek & Karol Partyka, 2016. "Reakcja polityki pieniężnej na wydarzenia giełdowe," Gospodarka Narodowa, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 5, pages 27-50.
    6. Martin Feldkircher & Florian Huber & Isabella Moder, 2016. "Modeling the evolution of monetary policy rules in CESEE," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 8-27.
    7. Mohamed El-Hodiri & Bulat Mukhamediyev, 2014. "Monetary Policy Rules in Some Transition Economies," Eurasian Journal of Economics and Finance, Eurasian Publications, vol. 2(3), pages 26-44.
    8. Borek Vašícek, 2011. "Inflation Dynamics and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve in Four Central European Countries," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 47(5), pages 71-100, September.
    9. repec:mes:eaeuec:v:57:y:2019:i:1:p:31-49 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Katarína Danišková & Jarko Fidrmuc, 2012. "Meta-Analysis of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Working Papers 314, Leibniz Institut für Ost- und Südosteuropaforschung (Institute for East and Southeast European Studies).
    11. Jens Klose, 2019. "Are Eastern European Taylor Reaction Functions Asymmetric in Inflation or Output? Empirical Evidence for Four Countries," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(1), pages 31-49, January.
    12. Piotr Banbula & Witold Kozinski & Michal Rubaszek, 2011. "The role of the exchange rate in monetary policy in Poland," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Capital flows, commodity price movements and foreign exchange intervention, volume 57, pages 285-295 Bank for International Settlements.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    open emerging economies; CEE countries; monetary policy rules; open economy Phillips curve; conditional inflation variance;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • P24 - Economic Systems - - Socialist Systems and Transition Economies - - - National Income, Product, and Expenditure; Money; Inflation

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