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Monetary Policy Rules and Inflation Processes in Open Emerging Economies

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  • Borek Vasicek

Abstract

This paper has three objectives. First, it aims to reveal the logic of interest rate settings pursued by the monetary authorities of twelve new EU members. Using an estimation of an augmented Taylor rule, we find that central banks in countries with flexible exchange rates respond mainly to (expected) inflation, though often rather loosely. Countries with fixed exchange rates seem to apply an interest rate peg with the euro. Second, it sheds light on the inflation processes of these countries. To this end, we estimate an open economy Phillips curve (PC) and find that inflation rates are not only driven by backward persistency, but also have a forward-looking component. Finally, we assess the viability of existing monetary arrangements for price stability, using the conditional inflation variance obtained from a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity estimation of the PC. We conclude that inflation targeting is preferable to an exchange rate peg because it allows for decreasing inflation rates as well as anchoring inflation volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Borek Vasicek, 2010. "Monetary Policy Rules and Inflation Processes in Open Emerging Economies," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(4), pages 36-58, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:mes:eaeuec:v:48:y:2010:i:4:p:36-58
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    Cited by:

    1. Vašíček, Bořek, 2012. "Is monetary policy in the new EU member states asymmetric?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 235-263.
    2. Katarína Danišková & Jarko Fidrmuc, 2011. "Inflation Convergence and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve in the Czech Republic," Czech Economic Review, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, vol. 5(2), pages 099-115, August.
    3. Mohamed El-Hodiri & Bulat Mukhamediyev, 2014. "Monetary Policy Rules in Some Transition Economies," Eurasian Journal of Economics and Finance, Eurasian Publications, vol. 2(3), pages 26-44.
    4. Borek Vašícek, 2011. "Inflation Dynamics and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve in Four Central European Countries," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 47(5), pages 71-100, September.
    5. Sushanta Mallick & Ricardo Sousa, 2013. "Commodity Prices, Inflationary Pressures, and Monetary Policy: Evidence from BRICS Economies," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 24(4), pages 677-694, September.
    6. Piotr Banbula & Witold Kozinski & Michal Rubaszek, 2011. "The role of the exchange rate in monetary policy in Poland," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Capital flows, commodity price movements and foreign exchange intervention, volume 57, pages 285-295 Bank for International Settlements.
    7. Katarína Danišková & Jarko Fidrmuc, 2012. "Meta-Analysis of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Working Papers 314, Leibniz Institut für Ost- und Südosteuropaforschung (Institute for East and Southeast European Studies).
    8. Vít Pošta, 2015. "Semi-structural estimates of time-varying NAIRU based on the new Keynesian Phillips curve: evidence from Eastern European economies," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(4), pages 1217-1243, December.
    9. Jens Klose, 2018. "Are Eastern European Taylor Reaction Functions Asymmetric in Inflation or Output: Empirical Evidence for four Countries," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201808, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    10. Łukasz Goczek & Karol Partyka, 2016. "Reakcja polityki pieniężnej na wydarzenia giełdowe," Gospodarka Narodowa, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 5, pages 27-50.
    11. Martin Feldkircher & Florian Huber & Isabella Moder, 2016. "Modeling the evolution of monetary policy rules in CESEE," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 8-27.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • P24 - Economic Systems - - Socialist Systems and Transition Economies - - - National Income, Product, and Expenditure; Money; Inflation

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