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Monetary Convergence and Risk Premiums in the EU Accession Countries

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  • Lucjan Orlowski

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Abstract

This study examines the impact of various monetary policy regimes on the ability to lower inflation and exchange rate risk premiums in the EU accession countries as they undergo monetary convergence to the eurozone. It proposes a monetary policy framework of flexible targeting of relative inflation risk premium that is believed to be credible and useful for managing these two categories of risk. A model of inflation and exchange rate risk premiums within the context of inflation targeting is developed. Recent trends in these risk premiums in Hungary, the Czech Republic and Poland are tested by employing the threshold ARCH (TARCH) model. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 2003

Suggested Citation

  • Lucjan Orlowski, 2003. "Monetary Convergence and Risk Premiums in the EU Accession Countries," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 251-267, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:openec:v:14:y:2003:i:3:p:251-267
    DOI: 10.1023/A:1023983003532
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Andrew Haldane, 1997. "Some Issues in Inflation Targeting," Bank of England working papers 74, Bank of England.
    2. Jordi Galí & Tommaso Monacelli, 2005. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 72(3), pages 707-734.
    3. Laurence M. Ball, 1999. "Policy Rules for Open Economies," NBER Chapters,in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 127-156 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1999. "Inflation targeting as a monetary policy rule," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 607-654, June.
    5. Golinelli, Roberto & Rovelli, Riccardo, 2005. "Monetary policy transmission, interest rate rules and inflation targeting in three transition countries," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 183-201, January.
    6. Manfred J. M. Neumann & Jurgen Von Hagen, 2002. "Does inflation targeting matter?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 127-148.
    7. Orlowski, Lucjan T., 2001. "From inflation targeting to the euro-peg: A model of monetary convergence for transition economies," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 233-251, September.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Lucjan T Orlowski & Anna Tsibulina, 2014. "Integration of Central and Eastern European and the Euro-Area Financial Markets: Repercussions from the Global Financial Crisis," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 56(3), pages 376-395, September.
    2. Hubert Gabrisch & Lucjan T. Orlowski, 2010. "Interest Rate Convergence in Euro-Candidate Countries: Volatility Dynamics of Sovereign Bond Yields," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 46(6), pages 69-85, November.
    3. Lucjan T. Orlowski, 2005. "Targeting Relative Inflation Forecast as Monetary Policy Framework for Adopting the Euro," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp754, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    4. Orlowski, Lucjan T., 2004. "Exchange rate risk and convergence to the Euro," ZEI Working Papers B 25-2004, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
    5. Crespo-Cuaresma, Jesus & Gnan, Ernest & Ritzberger-Grunwald, Doris, 2004. "Using pre-EMU money market rates to assess monetary policy in the euro area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 1003-1014, December.
    6. Oliver Holtemöller, 2005. "Uncovered interest rate parity and analysis of monetary convergence of potential EMU accession countries," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 33-63, June.
    7. Orlowski, Lucjan T., 2010. "Monetary policy rules for convergence to the Euro," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 148-159, June.
    8. Orlowski, Lucjan T., 2004. "Money rules for the eurozone candidate countries," ZEI Working Papers B 05-2004, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
    9. Mario Jovanoviæ, 2009. "Serbian foreign exchange market during 2004-2008," SEEMHN papers 19, National Bank of Serbia.
    10. Orlowski, Lucjan T., 2005. "Monetary convergence of the EU accession countries to the eurozone: A theoretical framework and policy implications," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 203-225, January.
    11. Thi Hong Hanh Pham, 2018. "Liquidity and exchange rate volatility," Working Papers halshs-01708633, HAL.
    12. Kocenda, Evzen & Valachy, Juraj, 2006. "Exchange rate volatility and regime change: A Visegrad comparison," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 727-753, December.
    13. Dibooglu, Sel & Kutan, Ali M., 2005. "Sources of inflation and output movements in Poland and Hungary: Policy implications for accession to the economic and monetary union," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 107-131, March.
    14. Mamoudou, Toure & Jamel, Trabelsi & Frédéric, Dufourt, 2009. "Empirical evaluation of nominal convergence in Czech Republic, Poland and Hungary (CPH)," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 993-999, September.
    15. Gabrisch, Hurbert & Orlowski, Lucjan, 2009. "Interest Rate Convergence in the Euro-Candidate Countries: Volatility Dynamics of Sovereign Bond Yields," Working Papers 2009001, Sacred Heart University, John F. Welch College of Business.
    16. Lucjan T. Orlowski & Kirsten Lommatzsch, 2005. "Bond Yield Compression in the Countries Converging to the Euro," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp799, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    17. Orlowski, Lucjan T., 2008. "Relative inflation-forecast as monetary policy target for convergence to the euro," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 1061-1081.
    18. Lucjan T Orlowski, 2005. "Monetary Policy Adjustments on the Final Passage towards the Euro," Macroeconomics 0503022, EconWPA.
    19. Orlowski, Lucjan T. & Rybinski, Krzysztof, 2006. "Implications of ERM2 for Poland's monetary policy," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 346-365, December.
    20. Mariusz Jarmuzek & Lucjan T. Orlowski & Artur Radziwill, 2005. "Monetary Policy Transparency in the Inflation Targeting," Macroeconomics 0502025, EconWPA.
    21. Mariusz Jarmuzek & Lucjan T. Orlowski & Artur Radziwill, 2004. "Monetary Policy Transparency in Inflation Targeting Countries: the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland," CASE Network Studies and Analyses 0281, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
    22. TRIANDAFIL, Cristina Maria, 2013. "Sustainability of convergence in the context of macro-prudential policies in the European Union," Working Papers of National Institute of Economic Research 130618, National Institute of Economic Research.
    23. Orlowski, Lucjan T., 2004. "Money rules for monetary convergence to the euro," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 817-837, October.

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