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Some Issues in Inflation Targeting

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  • Andrew Haldane

Abstract

This paper discusses some of the operational issues relevant to the implementation of an inflation-targeting regime. In particular it focuses on: whether inflation targeting is 'new'; whether (and how) the forward-looking nature of inflation-targeting helps to prevent instabilities in inflation; whether inflation-targeting potentially destabilises output; and whether it requires too much knowledge on the part of the authorities. The paper argues that none of these propositions is in general correct. It goes on to discuss the use of inflation forecasts in general, and inflation probability distributions in particular, in the context of inflation targeting in the United Kingdom. It also discusses the important role greater transparency plays among inflation targeters and discusses some evidence on this. Finally, a preliminary evaluation of inflation targeters' performance to date is given.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew Haldane, 1997. "Some Issues in Inflation Targeting," Bank of England working papers 74, Bank of England.
  • Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:74
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    File URL: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/archive/Documents/historicpubs/workingpapers/1998/wp74.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Blanchard, Olivier J, 1984. "The Lucas Critique and the Volcker Deflation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(2), pages 211-215, May.
    2. Bernanke, Ben S. & Mihov, Ilian, 1997. "What does the Bundesbank target?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1025-1053, June.
    3. Richard H. Clarida & Mark Gertler, 1997. "How the Bundesbank Conducts Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters,in: Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy, pages 363-412 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Cukierman, Alex & Meltzer, Allan H, 1986. "A Theory of Ambiguity, Credibility, and Inflation under Discretion and Asymmetric Information," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(5), pages 1099-1128, September.
    5. Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1995. "Inflation Indicators and Inflation Policy," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1995, Volume 10, pages 189-236 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Peter B. Clark & Douglas Laxton & David Rose, 1995. "Capacity Constraints, Inflation and the Transmission Mechanism; Forward-Looking Versus Myopic Policy Rules," IMF Working Papers 95/75, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Bean, Charles R, 1983. "Targeting Nominal Income: An Appraisal," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 93(372), pages 806-819, December.
    8. Dotsey, Michael, 1987. "Monetary policy, secrecy, and federal funds rate behavior," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 463-474, December.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Sharon McCaw & Satish Ranchhod, 2002. "The Reserve Bank's forecasting performance," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 65, December.
    2. Joel Bogdanski & Paulo Springer de Freitas & Ilan Goldfajn & Alexandre Tombini, 2002. "Inflation targeting in Brazil: shocks, backward-looking prices and IMF conditionality," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Market functioning and central bank policy, volume 12, pages 358-384 Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Ben Martin & Chris Salmon, 1999. "Should uncertain monetary policy-makers do less?," Bank of England working papers 99, Bank of England.
    4. Orlowski, Lucjan T., 2005. "Monetary convergence of the EU accession countries to the eurozone: A theoretical framework and policy implications," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 203-225, January.
    5. Orlowski, Lucjan T. & Rybinski, Krzysztof, 2006. "Implications of ERM2 for Poland's monetary policy," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 346-365, December.
    6. Dai, Meixing, 1998. "Les effets stabilisants de la zone-cible du taux d’inflation
      [The stabilising effects of inflation-targeting zone]
      ," MPRA Paper 13856, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Nov 2001.
    7. Katerina Smidkova, 2003. "Inflation targeting in the UK: Lessons for the Czech Republic," Macroeconomics 0304006, EconWPA.
    8. Lucjan Orlowski, 2003. "Monetary Convergence and Risk Premiums in the EU Accession Countries," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 251-267, July.
    9. Pierre St-Amant & David Tessier, 2000. "Résultats empiriques multi-pays relatifs à l'impact des cibles d'inflation sur la crédibilité de la politique monétaire," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 26(3), pages 295-310, September.
    10. repec:taf:oabmxx:v:3:y:2016:i:1:p:1154283 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Hossein Samiei & Jan Kees Martijn, 1999. "Central Bank Independence and the Conduct of Monetary Policy in the United Kingdom," IMF Working Papers 99/170, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Lucjan T. Orlowski, 2005. "Targeting Relative Inflation Forecast as Monetary Policy Framework for Adopting the Euro," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp754, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    13. George A. Kahn & Klara Parrish, 1998. "Conducting monetary policy with inflation targets," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q III, pages 5-32.
    14. Thórarinn G. Pétursson, 2004. "The effects of inflation targeting on macroeconomic performance," Economics wp23_thorarinn, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
    15. Orlowski, Lucjan T., 2001. "Monetary convergence of the EU candidates to the Euro: A theoretical framework and policy implications," ZEI Working Papers B 25-2001, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
    16. Eijffinger, S.C.W. & Schaling, E. & Verhagen, W.H., 2007. "Interest rate stepping : Theory and evidence," Other publications TiSEM 1eaada04-4480-4d42-afde-4, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    17. Orlowski, Lucjan T., 2002. "Monetary convergence and risk premiums in the EU candidate countries," ZEI Working Papers B 26-2002, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
    18. Leitemo,K., 1999. "Inflation targeting strategies in small open economies," Memorandum 21/1999, Oslo University, Department of Economics.

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