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Money rules for the eurozone candidate countries

  • Orlowski, Lucjan T.

This study proposes the adoption of money growth rules as indicator variables of monetary policies by the countries converging to a common currency system, in particular, by the eurozone candidate countries. The analytical framework assumes an inflation target as the ultimate policy goal. The converging countries act in essence as “takers” of the inflation target, which, in this case, is the eurozone’s inflation forecast. The study advances a forwardlooking money growth model that might be applied to aid monetary convergence to the eurozone. However, feasibility of adopting money growth rules depends on stable relationships between money and target variables, which are low inflation and stable exchange rate. Long-run interactions between these variables are examined for Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic by employing a Johansen cointegration test, along with short-run effects assessed with a vector error correction procedure.

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Paper provided by ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies, University of Bonn in its series ZEI Working Papers with number B 05-2004.

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Date of creation: 2004
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:zeiwps:b052004
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  1. Roberto Golinelli & Riccardo Rovelli, 2002. "Painless disinflation? Monetary policy rules in Hungary, 1991-99," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 10(1), pages 55-91, March.
  2. Jiri Jonas & Frederic S. Mishkin, 2003. "Inflation Targeting in Transition Countries: Experience and Prospects," NBER Working Papers 9667, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux," CEPR Discussion Papers 1131, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Lars E.O. Svensson & Michael Woodford, 2000. "Indicator variables for optimal policy," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  5. Stanley Fischer & Ratna Sahay & Carlos A. Végh Gramont, 2002. "Modern Hyper- and High Inflations," IMF Working Papers 02/197, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Peter F. Christoffersen & Robert F. Westcott, 1999. "Is Poland Ready for Inflation Targeting?," IMF Working Papers 99/41, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Daniel L. Thornton, 1983. "Why does velocity matter?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Dec, pages 5-13.
  8. Brada, Josef C. & Ktan, Ali M., 2001. "The convergence of monetary policy between candidate countries and the European Union," ZEI Working Papers B 07-2001, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies, University of Bonn.
  9. Michael Bruno, 1992. "Stabilization and Reform in Eastern Europe: A Preliminary Evaluation," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 39(4), pages 741-777, December.
  10. Orlowski, Lucjan T., 2001. "From inflation targeting to the euro-peg: A model of monetary convergence for transition economies," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 233-251, September.
  11. Warnock, Francis E., 2003. "Exchange rate dynamics and the welfare effects of monetary policy in a two-country model with home-product bias," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 343-363, June.
  12. Bofinger, Peter & Wollmershauser, Timo, 2001. "Is there a third way to EMU for the EU accession countries?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 253-274, September.
  13. Laurence Ball, 1998. "Policy Rules for Open Economies," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9806, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  14. federico ravenna & fabio natalucci, 2003. "the road to adopting the euro: monetary policy and exchange rate regimes in EU candidate countries," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 227, Society for Computational Economics.
  15. von Hagen, J, 1995. "Inflation and Monetary Targeting in Germany," Papers 03, American Institute for Contemporary German Studies-.
  16. Lucjan Orlowski, 2003. "Monetary Convergence and Risk Premiums in the EU Accession Countries," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 251-267, July.
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