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The End of Moderate Inflation in Three Transition Economies?

  • Josef C. Brada
  • Ali M. Kutan

This paper examines the moderation of inflation in three transition economies, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland at the end of the 1990s. We argue that the institutions for the conduct of monetary policy in these countries were relatively weak and that monetary policy was unsupported by fiscal policy and hampered by multiple objectives. Using a VAR model of inflation, we show that, under a variety of assumptions, foreign prices and the persistence of inflation were the key determinants of inflation in these countries. From this finding we conclude that the moderation of inflation in the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland was due largely to the decline in import prices from 1997 on, and thus it is likely be a temporary phenomenon.

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File URL: http://www.wdi.umich.edu/files/Publications/WorkingPapers/wp433.pdf
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Paper provided by William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan in its series William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series with number 433.

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Length: pages
Date of creation: 01 Jan 2002
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wdi:papers:2001-433
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  10. Frederic S. Mishkin & Adam S. Posen, 1997. "Inflation targeting: lessons from four countries," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Aug, pages 9-110.
  11. Orlowski, Lucjan T., 2001. "Monetary convergence of the EU candidates to the Euro: A theoretical framework and policy implications," ZEI Working Papers B 25-2001, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies, University of Bonn.
  12. Begg, David, 1998. "Pegging Out: Lessons from the Czech Exchange Rate Crisis," CEPR Discussion Papers 1956, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  13. van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 1994. "On the Role of Banks in Enterprise Restructuring: The Polish Example," CEPR Discussion Papers 898, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  14. DeJong, David N. & Nankervis, John C. & Savin, N. E. & Whiteman, Charles H., 1992. "The power problems of unit root test in time series with autoregressive errors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 323-343.
  15. Hafer, R. W. & Kutan, Ali M., 2001. "Detrending and the money-output link: International evidence," ZEI Working Papers B 19-2001, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies, University of Bonn.
  16. Dornbusch, Rudiger & Fischer, Stanley, 1993. "Moderate Inflation," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 7(1), pages 1-44, January.
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  18. J Bonin & M Schaffer, 1995. "Banks, Firms, Bad Debts and Bankruptcy in Hungary 1991-4," CEP Discussion Papers dp0234, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  19. Sims, Christopher A & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1990. "Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 113-44, January.
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  21. Richards, Anthony J. & Tersman, Gunnar H. R., 1996. "Growth, Nontradables, and Price Convergence in the Baltics," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 121-145, October.
  22. Gottschalk, Jan & Moore, David, 2001. "Implementing Inflation Targeting Regimes: The Case of Poland," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 24-39, March.
  23. DeJong, David N., 1992. "Co-integration and trend-stationarity in macroeconomic time series : Evidence from the likelihood function," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 347-370, June.
  24. Josef C. Brada & Ali M. Kutan, 1999. "The persistence of moderate inflation in the czech republic and the czk crisis of may 1997," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 1999(4).
  25. Kutan, Ali M. & Orlowski, Lucjan T., 2006. "Monetary convergence to the Euro," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 307-310, December.
  26. Desai, Padma, 1998. "Macroeconomic Fragility and Exchange Rate Vulnerability: A Cautionary Record of Transition Economies," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 621-641, December.
  27. Hafer, R W & Kutan, A M, 1997. "More Evidence on the Money-Output Relationship," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 35(1), pages 48-58, January.
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