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The End of Moderate Inflation in Three Transition Economies?

  • Josef C. Brada
  • Ali M. Kutan

This paper examines the moderation of inflation in three transition economies, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland at the end of the 1990s. We argue that the institutions for the conduct of monetary policy in these countries were relatively weak and that monetary policy was unsupported by fiscal policy and hampered by multiple objectives. Using a VAR model of inflation, we show that, under a variety of assumptions, foreign prices and the persistence of inflation were the key determinants of inflation in these countries. From this finding we conclude that the moderation of inflation in the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland was due largely to the decline in import prices from 1997 on, and thus it is likely be a temporary phenomenon.

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File URL: http://www.wdi.umich.edu/files/Publications/WorkingPapers/wp433.pdf
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Paper provided by William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan in its series William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series with number 433.

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Length: pages
Date of creation: 01 Jan 2002
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wdi:papers:2001-433
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  8. Kutan, Ali M. & Orlowski, Lucjan T., 2006. "Monetary convergence to the Euro," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 307-310, December.
  9. Gottschalk, Jan & Moore, David, 2001. "Implementing Inflation Targeting Regimes: The Case of Poland," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 24-39, March.
  10. Frederic S. Mishkin & Adam S. Posen, 1998. "Inflation Targeting: Lessons from Four Countries," NBER Working Papers 6126, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Desai, Padma, 1998. "Macroeconomic Fragility and Exchange Rate Vulnerability: A Cautionary Record of Transition Economies," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 621-641, December.
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  16. Josef C. Brada & Ali M. Kutan, 1999. "The persistence of moderate inflation in the czech republic and the czk crisis of may 1997," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 1999(4).
  17. Martin Feldstein & James H. Stock, 1993. "The Use of Monetary Aggregate to Target Nominal GDP," NBER Working Papers 4304, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  22. Begg, David, 1998. "Pegging Out: Lessons from the Czech Exchange Rate Crisis," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 669-690, December.
  23. R. W. Hafer & Ali M. Kutan, 2002. "Detrending and the Money-Output Link: International Evidence," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 69(1), pages 159-174, July.
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  25. Dittus Peter, 1994. "Bank Reform and Behavior in Central Europe," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 335-361, December.
  26. Orlowski, Lucjan T., 2001. "Monetary convergence of the EU candidates to the Euro: A theoretical framework and policy implications," ZEI Working Papers B 25-2001, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies, University of Bonn.
  27. DeJong, David N., 1992. "Co-integration and trend-stationarity in macroeconomic time series : Evidence from the likelihood function," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 347-370, June.
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