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Modelling Inflation Dynamics in Transition Economies: The Case of Ukraine

Author

Listed:
  • Olena BILAN
  • Boriss SILIVERSTOVS

Abstract

This paper explores the dynamics of inflation in Ukraine in a period of relative macroeconomic stability. The analysis of the interrelationship among inflation, money growth, wage growth, and devaluation expectations is based on impulse responses and variance decomposition of a vector autoregression model. We find that changes in devaluation expectations appear to be the most important factor driving price development, while money supply growth has negligible impact on inflation. In addition, our results show evidence of a high degree of inflation inertia, which may reflect the specific institutional settings of the Ukrainian economy.
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Suggested Citation

  • Olena BILAN & Boriss SILIVERSTOVS, 2010. "Modelling Inflation Dynamics in Transition Economies: The Case of Ukraine," EcoMod2004 330600023, EcoMod.
    • Handle: RePEc:ekd:003306:330600023
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    Cited by:

    1. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Hammermann, Felix & Flanagan, Mark, 2007. "What Explains Persistent Inflation Differentials Across Transition Economies?," Kiel Working Papers 1373, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    3. Lena Malesevic-Perovic, 2009. "Cointegration Approach to Analysing Inflation in Croatia," Financial Theory and Practice, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 33(2), pages 201-218.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • P24 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - National Income, Product, and Expenditure; Money; Inflation

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