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Sources of real and nominal exchange rate fluctuations in transition economies

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  • Selahattin Dibooglu
  • Ali M. Kutan

Abstract

This paper provides an empirical inquiry into the sources of movements of the real and nominal exchange rates in Hungary and Poland for during the 1990:01-1998:02 period. We decompose the exchange rate movements into those attributable to real and nominal shocks, we find that (1) nominal shocks have played a significant role in Poland, but not in Hungary, in explaining real exchange rate movements during the transition period. Instead, real shocks have dominated real exchange movements in Hungary and (2) nominal shocks explain almost all of nominal exchange rate movements in Poland and a sizable portion of nominal exchange rate movements in Hungary. These results are compared with the findings of Lastrapes (1992) and Enders and Lee (1997) for industrial countries. Finally, policy implications of the empirical results as well their lessons for modeling exchange rates in transition economies are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Selahattin Dibooglu & Ali M. Kutan, 1998. "Sources of real and nominal exchange rate fluctuations in transition economies," Working Papers 1998-022, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:1998-022
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    1. Stockman, Alan C, 1980. "A Theory of Exchange Rate Determination," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(4), pages 673-698, August.
    2. Szapary, Gyorgy & Jakab, Zoltan M., 1998. "Exchange Rate Policy in Transition Economies: The Case of Hungary," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 691-717, December.
    3. Desai, Padma, 1998. "Macroeconomic Fragility and Exchange Rate Vulnerability: A Cautionary Record of Transition Economies," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 621-641, December.
    4. Lastrapes, William D, 1992. "Sources of Fluctuations in Real and Nominal Exchange Rates," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(3), pages 530-539, August.
    5. Begg, David, 1998. "Pegging Out: Lessons from the Czech Exchange Rate Crisis," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 669-690, December.
    6. Portes, Richard, 1994. "Transformation Traps," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(426), pages 1178-1189, September.
    7. Brada, Josef C., 1998. "Introduction: Exchange Rates, Capital Flows, and Commercial Policies in Transition Economies," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 613-620, December.
    8. László Halpern & Charles Wyplosz, 1997. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(4), pages 430-461, December.
    9. Lucjan T. Orlowski, 1996. "The Path of Exchange Rates in the Polish Economic Transformation," CASE Network Studies and Analyses 0090, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kiptui, Moses, 2015. "Sources of Exchange Rate Fluctuations in Kenya: The Relative Importance of Real and Nominal Shocks," MPRA Paper 61515, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:6:y:2008:i:32:p:1-8 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Payne, James & Lee, Junsoo & Hofler, Richard, 2005. "Purchasing power parity: Evidence from a transition economy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 665-672, September.
    4. Gilles DUFRENOT & Balazs Egert, 2003. "Real Exchange Rates in Central and Eastern Europe : What Scope for the Underlying Fundamentals?," Development and Comp Systems 0309001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Uz, Idil & Ketenci, Natalya, 2008. "Panel analysis of the monetary approach to exchange rates: Evidence from ten new EU members and Turkey," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 57-69, March.
    6. K. Rajmund MIRDALA, 2012. "Sources Of Exchange Rate Volatility In The European Transition Economies. Effects Of Economic Crisis Revealed," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 7(3(21)/ Fa), pages 270-282.
    7. Bernardina Algieri, 2011. "The Dutch Disease: evidences from Russia," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 243-277, August.
    8. Rodolfo Cermeño & María Eugenia Sanin, 2015. "Are Flexible Exchange Rate Regimes more Volatile? Panel GARCH Evidence for the G7 and Latin America," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(2), pages 297-308, May.
    9. Kuralbayeva, Karlygash & Kutan, Ali M. & Wyzan, Michael L., 2001. "Is Kazakhstan vulnerable to the Dutch disease?," ZEI Working Papers B 29-2001, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
    10. Zenon Kontolemis & Kevin Ross, 2005. "Exchange Rate Fluctuations in the New Member States of the European Union," Macroeconomics 0504015, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Dibooglu, Selahattin & Kutan, Ali M., 2001. "Sources of inflation and output fluctuations in Poland and Hungary: Implications for full membership in the European Union," ZEI Working Papers B 16-2001, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.

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