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Panel analysis of the monetary approach to exchange rates: Evidence from ten new EU members and Turkey

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  • Uz, Idil
  • Ketenci, Natalya

Abstract

This paper presents empirical evidence which links the exchange rates to monetary variables in the newly entered ten EU members and Turkey. Using the panel version of various cointegration tests, we find a long-run relationship between nominal exchange rate and monetary variables such as monetary differential, output differential, interest rate differential and price differential. In addition, empirical evidence shows that our error-correction framework of the out-of-sample predictability outperforms random walk after two years.

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  • Uz, Idil & Ketenci, Natalya, 2008. "Panel analysis of the monetary approach to exchange rates: Evidence from ten new EU members and Turkey," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 57-69, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ememar:v:9:y:2008:i:1:p:57-69
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    Cited by:

    1. Galimberti, Jaqueson K. & Moura, Marcelo L., 2013. "Taylor rules and exchange rate predictability in emerging economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 1008-1031.
    2. Marcelo Moura, 2010. "Testing the Taylor Model Predictability for Exchange Rates in Latin America," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 21(4), pages 547-564, September.
    3. Adawo, Monday A. & Effiong, Ekpeno L., 2013. "Monetary exchange rate model as a long-run phenomenon: evidence from Nigeria," MPRA Paper 46407, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Smimou, K. & Khallouli, W., 2015. "Does the Euro affect the dynamic relation between stock market liquidity and the business cycle?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 125-153.
    5. Dąbrowski, Marek A. & Papież, Monika & Śmiech, Sławomir, 2014. "Exchange rates and monetary fundamentals in CEE countries: Evidence from a panel approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 148-159.
    6. Lòpez-Villavicencio, Antonia & Mazier, Jacques & Saadaoui, Jamel, 2012. "Temporal dimension and equilibrium exchange rate: A FEER/BEER comparison," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 58-77.
    7. Idil UZ & Mehrin DALAN, 2009. "MONETARY APPROACH TO EXCHANGE RATE DETERMINATION: The Case of Argentina, Brazil, Taiwan and Turkey, 1986-2006," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 9(2).
    8. Yutaka Kurihara, 2012. "Exchange rate determination and structural changes in response to monetary policies," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 29(3), pages 187-196, July.
    9. Niyati Bhanja & Arif Billah Dar & Aviral Kumar Tiwari, 2015. "Exchange Rate and Monetary Fundamentals: Long Run Relationship Revisited," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 62(1), pages 33-54, March.

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