Is the CNB Predictable?
This paper asks to what extent were the last one hundred policy decisions taken by the Czech National Bank (CNB) considered predictable by the market. The results are threefold. First, CNB policy decisions can be considered as predictable on average. Second, policy predictability followed no clear trend. Third, the analysis shows that it was more difficult for the market to predict policy outcomes regarding CNB Board meetings where interest rate were changed compared with meetings where repo rate were not changed.
Volume (Year): 55 (2005)
Issue (Month): 7-8 (July)
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- David Navratil & Viktor Kotlan, 2005.
"The CNB's Policy Decisions - Are They Priced in by the Markets?,"
Research and Policy Notes
2005/01, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
- David Navrátil & Viktor Kotlán, 2005. "The CNB’s Policy Decisions – Are They Priced in by the Markets?," Macroeconomics 0503005, EconWPA.
- Michal Skořepa & Viktor Kotlán, 2006.
"Inflation Targeting: To Forecast or To Simulate?,"
Prague Economic Papers,
University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2006(4), pages 300-314.
- Andrew G Haldane & Vicky Read, 2000. "Monetary policy surprises and the yield curve," Bank of England working papers 106, Bank of England.
- Kevin Ross, 2002. "Market Predictability of ECB Policy Decisions: A Comparative Examination," IMF Working Papers 02/233, International Monetary Fund.
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