Central Bank Forecasts as a Coordination Device: Evidence from the Czech Republic
Do private analysts coordinate their forecasts via central bank forecasts? In this paper, we examine private and central bank forecasts for the Czech Republic. The evolution of the standard deviation of private forecasts as well as the distance from the central bank’s forecasts are used to study whether a coordination effect exists, how it is influenced by uncertainty, and the effects of changes in central bank communication. The results suggest that private analysts coordinate their forecasts for the interest rate and inflation, while no or limited evidence exists for the exchange rate and GDP growth.
Volume (Year): 6 (2012)
Issue (Month): 3 (October)
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Opletalova 26, CZ-110 00 Prague|
Phone: +420 2 222112330
Fax: +420 2 22112304
Web page: http://ies.fsv.cuni.cz/
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Web: http://auco.cuni.cz/ Email: |
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Frederic S Mishkin, 2004.
"Can Central Bank Transparency Go Too Far?,"
RBA Annual Conference Volume,in: Christopher Kent & Simon Guttmann (ed.), The Future of Inflation Targeting
Reserve Bank of Australia.
- Frederic S. Mishkin, 2004. "Can Central Bank Transparency Go Too Far?," NBER Working Papers 10829, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Stephen G. Cecchetti & Craig Hakkio, 2009. "Inflation targeting and private sector forecasts," NBER Working Papers 15424, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Stephen G. Cecchetti & Craig S. Hakkio, 2010. "Inflation targeting and private sector forecasts," Research Working Paper RWP 10-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- David Navrátil & Viktor Kotlán, 2005. "The CNB’s Policy Decisions – Are They Priced in by the Markets?," Macroeconomics 0503005, EconWPA.
- David Navratil & Viktor Kotlan, 2005. "The CNB's Policy Decisions - Are They Priced in by the Markets?," Research and Policy Notes 2005/01, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
- Michael Ehrmann & Sylvester Eijffinger & Marcel Fratzscher, 2012. "The Role of Central Bank Transparency for Guiding Private Sector Forecasts," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 114(3), pages 1018-1052, 09.
- Ehrmann, Michael & Eijffinger, Sylvester C W & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2009. "The role of central bank transparency for guiding private sector forecasts," CEPR Discussion Papers 7585, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Ehrmann, Michael & Eijffinger, Sylvester & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2010. "The role of central bank transparency for guiding private sector forecasts," Working Paper Series 1146, European Central Bank.
- Eijffinger, Sylvester C.W. & Geraats, Petra M., 2006. "How transparent are central banks?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 1-21, March.
- Eijffinger, Sylvester C W & Geraats, Petra M, 2002. "How Transparent are Central Banks?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3188, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Eijffinger, S.C.W. & Geraats, P., 2006. "How transparent are central banks?," Other publications TiSEM b34dfb1f-520f-4787-a08f-5, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
- Eijffinger, S.C.W. & Geraats, P.M., 2004. "How Transparent Are Central Banks?," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0411, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Ehrmann, Michael & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2007. "Social value of public information: testing the limits to transparency," Working Paper Series 821, European Central Bank.
- Fujiwara, Ippei, 2005. "Is the central bank's publication of economic forecasts influential?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 89(3), pages 255-261, December.
- Ales Bulir & Katerina Smidkova & Viktor Kotlan & David Navratil, 2007. "Inflation Targeting and Communication: Should the Public Read Inflation Reports or Tea Leaves?," Working Papers 2007/14, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
- Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2002. "Social Value of Public Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1521-1534, December.
- Jiri Bohm & Petr Kral & Branislav Saxa, 2009. "Perception is Always Right: The CNBâ€™s Monetary Policy in the Media," Working Papers 2009/10, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
- Sunil Sharma & Sushil Bikhchandani, 2000. "Herd Behavior in Financial Markets; A Review," IMF Working Papers 00/48, International Monetary Fund.
- Eijffinger, Sylvester & Tesfaselassie, Mewael F., 2007. "Central Bank forecasts and disclosure policy: Why it pays to be optimistic," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 30-50, March.
- Eijffinger, Sylvester C W & Tesfaselassie, Mewael F., 2005. "Central Bank Forecasts and Disclosure Policy: Why it Pays to be Optimistic," CEPR Discussion Papers 4854, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Eijffinger, S.C.W. & Tesfaselassie, M.F., 2007. "Central bank forecasts and disclosure policy : Why it pays to be optimisitic," Other publications TiSEM 22defe88-78bb-439d-9a38-8, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
- Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-491, June. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fau:aucocz:au2012_244. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Lenka Stastna)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.