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Which Aspects of Central Bank Transparency Matter? A Comprehensive Analysis of the Effect of Transparency of Survey Forecasts

Author

Listed:
  • Anna Naszodi

    (European Commission's Joint Research Centre)

  • Csaba Csavas

    (Magyar Nemzeti Bank)

  • Daniel Felcser

    (Magyar Nemzeti Bank)

Abstract

We investigate whether a higher level of central bank transparency can reduce the degree of disagreement across individual forecasters, and whether it can improve the forecasting performance of survey respondents. The analysis is carried out on a panel data set that is richer than those used by previous studies. This unique data set allows us to test both for causality and for misspecification. Moreover, it allows us to identify the effects of various aspects of transparency separately and to assign weights to them reflecting their relative importance in reducing uncertainty. Finally, we construct a new composite measure of transparency using the estimated weights.

Suggested Citation

  • Anna Naszodi & Csaba Csavas & Daniel Felcser, 2016. "Which Aspects of Central Bank Transparency Matter? A Comprehensive Analysis of the Effect of Transparency of Survey Forecasts," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 12(4), pages 147-192, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2016:q:4:a:4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Akosah, Nana Kwame & Alagidede, Imhotep Paul & Schaling, Eric, 2020. "Testing for asymmetry in monetary policy rule for small-open developing economies: Multiscale Bayesian quantile evidence from Ghana," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 22(C).
    2. Zulfi Diane Zaini, 2018. "Functions of the Bank of Indonesia as Lender ofLast Resort for Banks\' Safety," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(3), pages 607-621.
    3. Thomas Lustenberger & Enzo Rossi, 2020. "Does Central Bank Transparency and Communication Affect Financial and Macroeconomic Forecasts?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16(2), pages 153-201, March.
    4. Akosah, Nana & Alagidede, Paul & Schaling, Eric, 2019. "Monetary Policy Transparency in Ghana: Recent Evidence," MPRA Paper 96998, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Paweł Baranowski & Wirginia Doryń & Tomasz Łyziak & Ewa Stanisławska, 2020. "Words and deeds in managing expectations: empirical evidence on an inflation targeting economy," NBP Working Papers 326, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    6. Monica Jain & Christopher S. Sutherland, 2020. "How Do Central Bank Projections and Forward Guidance Influence Private-Sector Forecasts?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16(5), pages 179-218, October.
    7. Zulfi Diane Zaini, 2018. "Functions of the Bank of Indonesia as Lender ofLast Resort for Banks\' Safety," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(3), pages 607-621.
    8. Miguel Acosta, 2023. "A New Measure of Central Bank Transparency and Implications for the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 19(3), pages 49-97, August.
    9. Chris D'Souza & Jane Voll, 2021. "Qualitative Field Research in Monetary Policy Making," Discussion Papers 2021-1, Bank of Canada.
    10. Frank Kwabi & Chizindu Wonu & Ernest Ezeani & Andrews Owusu & Vitor Leone, 2025. "Impacts of cross‐border equity portfolio flow and central bank transparency on financial development: The role of economic freedom and international bonds," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(2), pages 1319-1347, April.
    11. Ciccarone, Giuseppe & Giuli, Francesco & Marchetti, Enrico, 2019. "Macroeconomic equilibrium and nominal price rigidities under imperfect rationality," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 60-78.
    12. Makrychoriti, Panagiota & Pasiouras, Fotios, 2021. "National culture and central bank transparency: Cross-country evidence," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    13. Csaba Lentner & Krisztina Szegedi & Tibor Tatay, 2017. "Social Responsibility in the Operation of Central Banks," Financial and Economic Review, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 16(2), pages 64-85.
    14. Baranowski, Paweł & Doryń, Wirginia & Łyziak, Tomasz & Stanisławska, Ewa, 2021. "Words and deeds in managing expectations: Empirical evidence from an inflation targeting economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 49-67.
    15. Fernandes, Cecilia Melo, 2021. "ECB communication as a stabilization and coordination device: evidence from ex-ante inflation uncertainty," Working Paper Series 2582, European Central Bank.

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