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Does Central Bank Transparency and Communication Affect Financial and Macroeconomic Forecasts?

Author

Listed:
  • Thomas Lustenberger

    (Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA) and University of Basel)

  • Enzo Rossi

    (Swiss National Bank and University of Zurich)

Abstract

In a large sample of countries across different geographic regions and over a long period of time, we find limited countryand variable-specific effects of central bank transparency on forecast accuracy and their dispersion among a large set of professional forecasts of financial and macroeconomic variables. More communication even increases forecast errors and dispersion.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas Lustenberger & Enzo Rossi, 2020. "Does Central Bank Transparency and Communication Affect Financial and Macroeconomic Forecasts?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16(2), pages 153-201, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2020:q:1:a:5
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    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty

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