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Anticipation and Surprises in Central Bank Interest Rate Policy: The Case of the Bundesbank

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  • Daniel C. Hardy

    (International Monetary Fund)

Abstract

Market reaction to a change in official interest rates will depend on the extent to which the change is anticipated, and on how it is interpreted as a signal of future policy. In this paper, a technique is developed to separate the anticipated and unanticipated components of such changes, and applied to estimate the response of euro--deutsche mark interest rates to adjustments in the Bundesbank's Lombard and discount rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel C. Hardy, 1998. "Anticipation and Surprises in Central Bank Interest Rate Policy: The Case of the Bundesbank," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(4), pages 647-671, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:imfstp:v:45:y:1998:i:4:p:647-671
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    Cited by:

    1. Smile Dube & Yan Zhou, 2013. "South Africa¡¯s Short and Long Term Interest Rates: A Threshold Cointegration Analysis," Business and Economic Research, Macrothink Institute, vol. 3(1), pages 187-211, June.
    2. Jonathan Coppel & Ellis Connolly, 2003. "What Do Financial Market Data Tell Us about Monetary Policy Transparency?," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2003-05, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    3. Lumengo BONGA-BONGA, 2009. "Monetary Policy and Long Term Interest Rate in South Africa," EcoMod2009 21500016, EcoMod.
    4. Kaketsis, Asimakis & Sarantis, Nicholas, 2006. "The effects of monetary policy changes on market interest rates in Greece: An event study approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 487-504.
    5. Gabriel Pérez Quirós & Jorge Sicilia, 2002. "Is the European Central Bank (and the United States Federal Reserve) predictable?," Working Papers 0229, Banco de España.
    6. Thornton, Daniel L., 2000. "The relationship between the federal funds rate and the Fed's federal funds rate target: is it open market or open mouth operations?," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2000,09, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    7. Iris Biefang-Frisancho Mariscal & Peter Howells, 2006. "Monetary Policy Uncertainty: Is There a Difference Between Bank of England and the Bundesbank/ECB?," Working Papers 0613, Department of Accounting, Economics and Finance, Bristol Business School, University of the West of England, Bristol.
    8. Aurélie Boubel & Richard Topol, 1999. "Intraday Exchange Rate Dynamics and Monetary Policy," Documents de recherche 99-20, Centre d'Études des Politiques Économiques (EPEE), Université d'Evry Val d'Essonne.
    9. Roman Matoušek & Anita Taci, 2003. "Direct Inflation Targeting and Nominal Convergence: The Czech Case," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 269-283, July.
    10. Zettelmeyer, Jeromin, 2004. "The impact of monetary policy on the exchange rate: evidence from three small open economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 635-652, April.
    11. Kiyutsevskaya, Anna (Киюцевская, Анна) & Trunin, Pavel (Трунин, Павел), 2018. "Features of Interest Rate Policy Under the Inflation Targeting Regime [Особенности Процентной Политики При Режиме Таргетирования Инфляции]," Working Papers 031812, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    12. Carlson, John A. & Lo, Melody, 2006. "One minute in the life of the DM/US$: Public news in an electronic market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(7), pages 1090-1102, November.
    13. Iris Biefang-Frisancho Mariscal & Peter Howells, 2005. "Monetary Policy Transparency and Uncertainty: A Comparison between the Bank of England and the Bundesbank/ECB," Working Papers 0508, Department of Accounting, Economics and Finance, Bristol Business School, University of the West of England, Bristol.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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