International Linkages and Macroeconomic News Effects on Interest Rate Volatility - Australia and the US'
We examine international linkages between daily time series of US and Australian 3 month Treasury Bills and 10 year Government Bonds from 1987-95, paying particular attention to the effects of macroeconomic announcements in both countries. The 2 country's interest rate data are modelled by a bivariate EGARCH formulation. The results suggest that market participants believed the Reserve Bank of Australia targetted the CPI, while the Federal Reserve targetted economic activity. US macroeconomic activity announcements significantly moved Australian interest rates, particularly at the short end. Australian interest rates moved significantly in response to the previous day's US interest rate shocks. The conditional volatilities of the Australian interest rate changes were also significantly influenced by lagged US interest rate shocks, as well as by surprises in US macroeconomic announcements. Some macroeconomic news announcements raised conditional volatilities, while others reduced them. Overall there was a remarkable and complex array of linkages between the 2 countries.
|Date of creation:||Oct 1998|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Sydney, NSW 2006|
Phone: 61 +2 9351 5055
Fax: 61 +2 9351 4341
Web page: http://sydney.edu.au/arts/economics
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-370, March.
- Whitney K. Newey & Douglas G. Steigerwald, 1997. "Asymptotic Bias for Quasi-Maximum-Likelihood Estimators in Conditional Heteroskedasticity Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(3), pages 587-600, May.
- Karfakis, Costas & Kim, Suk-Joong, 1995.
"Exchange rates, interest rates and current account news: some evidence from Australia,"
Journal of International Money and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 575-595, August.
- Karfakis, C. & Kim, Suk-Joong, 1993. "Exchange Rates, Interest Rates and Current Account News: Some Evidence from Australia," Working Papers 189, University of Sydney, School of Economics.
- Michael J. Fleming & Eli M Remolona, 1999. "The term structure of announcement effects," BIS Working Papers 71, Bank for International Settlements.
- Michael J. Fleming & Eli M. Remolona, 1999. "The term structure of announcement effects," Staff Reports 76, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Michael J. Fleming & Eli M. Remolona, 1997. "What moves the bond market?," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Dec, pages 31-50.
- Michael J. Fleming & Eli M. Remolona, 1997. "What moves the bond market?," Research Paper 9706, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Baillie, Richard T. & Osterberg, William P., 1997. "Why do central banks intervene?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(6), pages 909-919, December.
- Jones, Charles M. & Lamont, Owen & Lumsdaine, Robin L., 1998. "Macroeconomic news and bond market volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 315-337, March.
- Charles M. Jones & Owen Lamont & Robin L. Lumsdaine, "undated". "Macroeconomic News and Bond Market Volatility," CRSP working papers 333, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
- Charles M. Jones & Owen Lamont & Robin Lumsdaine, 1996. "Macroeconomic News and Bond Market Volatility," Home Pages _005, Princeton University, Department of Economics.
- Hardouvelis, Gikas A., 1988. "Economic news, exchange rates and interest rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 23-35, March.
- Brenner, Robin J. & Harjes, Richard H. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1996. "Another Look at Models of the Short-Term Interest Rate," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 31(01), pages 85-107, March.
- Glosten, Lawrence R. & Milgrom, Paul R., 1985. "Bid, ask and transaction prices in a specialist market with heterogeneously informed traders," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 71-100, March.
- Lawrence R. Glosten & Paul R. Milgrom, 1983. "Bid, Ask and Transaction Prices in a Specialist Market with Heterogeneously Informed Traders," Discussion Papers 570, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
- Johnson, Gordon & Schneeweis, Thomas, 1994. "Jump-Diffusion Processes in the Foreign Exchange Markets and the Release of Macroeconomic News," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 7(4), pages 309-329.
- Kitchen, John, 1996. "Domestic and international financial market responses to Federal deficit announcements," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 239-254, April.
- Engle, Robert F & Ng, Victor K, 1993. " Measuring and Testing the Impact of News on Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1749-1778, December.
- Robert F. Engle & Victor K. Ng, 1991. "Measuring and Testing the Impact of News on Volatility," NBER Working Papers 3681, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bollerslev, Tim & Engle, Robert F, 1993. "Common Persistence in Conditional Variances," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(1), pages 167-186, January.
- Edison, Hali J, 1997. "The Reaction of Exchange Rates and Interest Rates to News Releases," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(2), pages 87-100, April.
- Hali J. Edison, 1996. "The reaction of exchange rates and interest rates to news releases," International Finance Discussion Papers 570, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Ederington, Louis H. & Lee, Jae Ha, 1995. "The Short-Run Dynamics of the Price Adjustment to New Information," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 30(01), pages 117-134, March.
- Bonser-Neal, Catherine & Tanner, Glenn, 1996. "Central bank intervention and the volatility of foreign exchange rates: evidence from the options market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(6), pages 853-878, December.
- Hung, Juann H, 1997. "Intervention strategies and exchange rate volatility: a noise trading perspective," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 779-793, September.
- Madura, Jeff & Tucker, Alan L., 1992. "Trade deficit surprises and the ex ante volatility of foreign exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(5), pages 492-501, October.
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1987. "A Conditionally Heteroskedastic Time Series Model for Speculative Prices and Rates of Return," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(3), pages 542-547, August.
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1990. "Modelling the Coherence in Short-run Nominal Exchange Rates: A Multivariate Generalized ARCH Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(3), pages 498-505, August.
- Becker, Kent G & Finnerty, Joseph E & Kopecky, Kenneth J, 1995. "Domestic macroeconomic news and foreign interest rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(6), pages 763-783, December.
- McQueen, Grant & Roley, V Vance, 1993. "Stock Prices, News, and Business Conditions," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(3), pages 683-707. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:syd:wpaper:2123/6742. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Vanessa Holcombe)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.