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Communication Matters: U.S. Monetary Policy and Commodity Price Volatility

Author

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  • Bernd Hayo

    (Philipps-University Marburg)

  • Ali M. Kutan

    (Southern Illinois University Edwardsville; The Emerging Markets Group, London; William Davidson Institute, Michigan)

  • Matthias Neuenkirch

    (Philipps-University Marburg)

Abstract

Using a GARCH model, we analyze the influence of U.S. monetary policy action and communication on the price volatility of commodities for the period 1998–2009. We find, first, that U.S. monetary policy events have an economically significant impact on price volatility. Second, expected target rate changes and communications decrease volatility, whereas target rate surprises and unorthodox monetary policy measures increase it. Third, we find a change in reaction to central bank communication during the recent financial crisis: the “calming” effect of communication found for the whole sample is partly offset during that period.

Suggested Citation

  • Bernd Hayo & Ali M. Kutan & Matthias Neuenkirch, 2011. "Communication Matters: U.S. Monetary Policy and Commodity Price Volatility," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201105, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    • Handle: RePEc:mar:magkse:201105
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Yao, Wei & Alexiou, Constantinos, 2022. "Exploring the transmission mechanism of speculative and inventory arbitrage activity to commodity price volatility. Novel evidence for the US economy," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    2. Edward Knapp & Jason Loughrey, 2017. "The single farm payment and income risk in Irish farms 2005–2013," Agricultural and Food Economics, Springer;Italian Society of Agricultural Economics (SIDEA), vol. 5(1), pages 1-15, December.
    3. Tarek Chebbi, 2021. "The response of precious metal futures markets to unconventional monetary surprises in the presence of uncertainty," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 1897-1916, April.
    4. Eijffinger, S.C.W. & Mahieu, R.J. & Raes, L.B.D., 2012. "Can the Fed talk the Hind Legs off the Stock Market? (replaces CentER DP 2011-072)," Discussion Paper 2012-012, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    5. Behmiri, Niaz Bashiri & Manera, Matteo & Nicolini, Marcella, 2016. "Understanding Dynamic Conditional Correlations between Commodities Futures Markets," ESP: Energy Scenarios and Policy 232223, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    6. Mahambare, Vidya & Pathak, Jalaj, 2021. "Differential impact of diversity in policy communication," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    7. Nicholas Apergis & Chritina Christou & Tasawar Hayat & Tareq Saeed, 2020. "U.S. Monetary Policy and Herding: Evidence from Commodity Markets," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 48(3), pages 355-374, September.
    8. Marinella Davide & Paola Vesco, 2016. "Alternative Approaches for Rating INDCs: a Comparative Analysis," Working Papers 2016.18, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    9. Huchet, Nicolas & Fam, Papa Gueye, 2016. "The role of speculation in international futures markets on commodity prices," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 49-65.
    10. Sylvester Eijffinger & Ronald Mahieu & Louis Raes, 2017. "Can the Fed Talk the Hind Legs Off the Stock Market?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 13(1), pages 53-94, February.
    11. Ojogho, Osaihiomwan & Egware, Robert Awotu, 2015. "Price Generating Process And Volatility In Nigerian Agricultural Commodities Market," International Journal of Food and Agricultural Economics (IJFAEC), Alanya Alaaddin Keykubat University, Department of Economics and Finance, vol. 3(4), pages 1-10, October.
    12. Marfatia, Hardik A. & Gupta, Rangan & Cakan, Esin, 2021. "Dynamic impact of the U.S. monetary policy on oil market returns and volatility," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 159-169.
    13. Antón Sarabia Arturo & Bazdresch Santiago & Lelo-de-Larrea Alejandra, 2023. "The Influence of Central Bank's Projections and Economic Narrative on Professional Forecasters' Expectations: Evidence from Mexico," Working Papers 2023-21, Banco de México.
    14. Chimaliro, Aubrey Victor, 2018. "Analysis of main determinants of soya bean price volatility in Malawi," Research Theses 334743, Collaborative Masters Program in Agricultural and Applied Economics.
    15. Ye, Wuyi & Guo, Ranran & Deschamps, Bruno & Jiang, Ying & Liu, Xiaoquan, 2021. "Macroeconomic forecasts and commodity futures volatility," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 981-994.
    16. Gomis-Porqueras Pedro & Rafiq Shuddhasattwa & Yao Wenying, 2023. "The impact of forward guidance and large-scale asset purchase programs on commodity markets," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 27(4), pages 519-551, September.
    17. Emiliano Magrini & Ayca Donmez, 2013. "Agricultural Commodity Price Volatility and Its Macroeconomic Determinants: A GARCH-MIDAS Approach," JRC Research Reports JRC84138, Joint Research Centre.
    18. Bermpei, Theodora & Karadimitropoulou, Aikaterini & Triantafyllou, Athanasios & Alshalahi, Jebreel, 2023. "Does commodity price uncertainty matter for the cost of credit? Evidence from developing and advanced economies," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 29(C).
    19. Suranjana Joarder, 2018. "The Commodity Futures Volatility and Macroeconomic Fundamentals - The Case of Oil and Oilseed Commodities in India," International Econometric Review (IER), Econometric Research Association, vol. 10(2), pages 33-50, September.
    20. Mo, Di & Gupta, Rakesh & Li, Bin & Singh, Tarlok, 2018. "The macroeconomic determinants of commodity futures volatility: Evidence from Chinese and Indian markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 543-560.
    21. Eijffinger, S.C.W. & Mahieu, R.J. & Raes, L.B.D., 2012. "Can the Fed Talk the Hind Legs off the Stock Market? (replaces EBC DP 2011-017)," Other publications TiSEM 2cab42f6-c75d-46ef-9801-4, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    22. Manera, Matteo & Nicolini, Marcella & Vignati, Ilaria, 2016. "Modelling futures price volatility in energy markets: Is there a role for financial speculation?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 220-229.
    23. Rosa, Carlo, 2014. "The high-frequency response of energy prices to U.S. monetary policy: Understanding the empirical evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 295-303.
    24. Qadan, Mahmoud & Idilbi, Yasmeen, 2022. "Presidential honeymoons, political cycles and the commodity market," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    25. Stephanos Papadamou & Vasilios Sogiakas, 2018. "The informational content of unconventional monetary policy on precious metal markets," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(1), pages 16-36, January.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Central Bank Communication; Commodities; Federal Reserve Bank; Monetary Policy; Price Volatility;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • Q10 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - General
    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General

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