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Volatility returns with vengeance: Financial markets vs. commodities

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  • Aboura, Sofiane
  • Chevallier, Julien

Abstract

To assess how financial markets and commodities are inter-related, this paper introduces a ‘volatility surprise’ component into the asymmetric DCC with one exogenous variable (ADCCX) framework. We develop an econometric model in which returns and volatility allow to influence pairs of assets, and derive several case studies linking commodities to stocks, bonds and currencies from 1983 to 2013. The innovative feature of our model is that these volatility spillovers are modeled consistently within the correlation dynamics of the ADCCX. We find evidence that return and volatility spillovers do exist between commodity and financial markets and that in turn, their relative impact on each other is very substantial.

Suggested Citation

  • Aboura, Sofiane & Chevallier, Julien, 2015. "Volatility returns with vengeance: Financial markets vs. commodities," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 334-354.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:33:y:2015:i:c:p:334-354
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ribaf.2014.04.003
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    3. Huchet, Nicolas & Fam, Papa Gueye, 2016. "The role of speculation in international futures markets on commodity prices," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 49-65.
    4. Tanha, Hassan & Dempsey, Michael, 2015. "The asymmetric response of volatility to market changes and the volatility smile: Evidence from Australian options," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 164-176.
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    6. Fuentes, Fernanda & Herrera, Rodrigo & Clements, Adam, 2018. "Modeling extreme risks in commodities and commodity currencies," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 108-120.
    7. Baldi, Lucia & Peri, Massimo & Vandone, Daniela, 2016. "Stock markets’ bubbles burst and volatility spillovers in agricultural commodity markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 277-285.
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    9. Karyotis, Catherine & Alijani, Sharam, 2016. "Soft commodities and the global financial crisis: Implications for the economy, resources and institutions," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 350-359.
    10. Sila Alan, Nazli & Karagozoglu, Ahmet K. & Korkmaz, Sibel, 2016. "Growing pains: The evolution of new stock index futures in emerging markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 1-16.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Volatility spillovers; Financial markets; Commodities; ADCCX;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C4 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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