IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spd/journl/v70y2020i3-4p42-55.html

Contagion in Futures Metal Markets during the Recent Global Financial Crisis: Evidence from Gold, Silver, Copper, Zinc and Aluminium

Author

Listed:
  • Konstantinos Tsiaras

    (Department of Economic Sciences. University of Ioannina, Greece.)

Abstract

This paper seeks to investigate the time-varying dynamic conditional correlations to the five most important future metal markets, namely Gold, Silver, Copper, Zinc and Aluminium. We employ a multivariate Fractionally Integrated Generalized ARCH (FIGARCH) dynamic conditional correlation (cDCC) model to generate the potential contagion effects between the markets. The under investigation period is during the period 2006-2011. Empirical results show the existence of contagion or the increase in dynamic conditional correlation for all the pairs of markets, indicating the correlations risky from an investor’s point of view and implying the portfolio strategies difficult to apply. Additionally, Zinc is proved to be the most immune future metal market. The results are of interest to policymakers who provide regulations for the future metal markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Konstantinos Tsiaras, 2020. "Contagion in Futures Metal Markets during the Recent Global Financial Crisis: Evidence from Gold, Silver, Copper, Zinc and Aluminium," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 70(3-4), pages 42-55, July-Dece.
    • Handle: RePEc:spd:journl:v:70:y:2020:i:3-4:p:42-55
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://spoudai.unipi.gr/index.php/spoudai/article/download/2827/2713/2827-3726-1-SM
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Billio, Monica & Caporin, Massimiliano, 2010. "Market linkages, variance spillovers, and correlation stability: Empirical evidence of financial contagion," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 54(11), pages 2443-2458, November.
    2. Dirk G. Baur & Brian M. Lucey, 2010. "Is Gold a Hedge or a Safe Haven? An Analysis of Stocks, Bonds and Gold," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 217-229, May.
    3. Aboura, Sofiane & Chevallier, Julien, 2015. "Volatility returns with vengeance: Financial markets vs. commodities," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 334-354.
    4. Tao, Juan & Green, Christopher J., 2012. "Asymmetries, causality and correlation between FTSE100 spot and futures: A DCC-TGARCH-M analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 26-37.
    5. G. Geoffrey Booth & Mustafa Chowdhury & Teppo Martikainen & Yiuman Tse, 1997. "Intraday Volatility in International Stock Index Futures Markets: Meteor Showers or Heat Waves?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 43(11), pages 1564-1576, November.
    6. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Floros, Christos & Kizys, Renatas, 2016. "Dynamic spillover effects in futures markets: UK and US evidence," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 406-418.
    7. Baur, Dirk G. & McDermott, Thomas K., 2010. "Is gold a safe haven? International evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(8), pages 1886-1898, August.
    8. Mensi, Walid & Beljid, Makram & Boubaker, Adel & Managi, Shunsuke, 2013. "Correlations and volatility spillovers across commodity and stock markets: Linking energies, food, and gold," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 15-22.
    9. Vivian, Andrew & Wohar, Mark E., 2012. "Commodity volatility breaks," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 395-422.
    10. Kang, Sang Hoon & McIver, Ron & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2017. "Dynamic spillover effects among crude oil, precious metal, and agricultural commodity futures markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 19-32.
    11. Thuraisamy, Kannan S. & Sharma, Susan Sunila & Ali Ahmed, Huson Joher, 2013. "The relationship between Asian equity and commodity futures markets," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 67-75.
    12. Kristin J. Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 2002. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2223-2261, October.
    13. Sensoy, Ahmet & Hacihasanoglu, Erk & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2015. "Dynamic convergence of commodity futures: Not all types of commodities are alike," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 150-160.
    14. Sensoy, Ahmet, 2013. "Dynamic relationship between precious metals," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 504-511.
    15. Chen, Mei-Hsiu, 2010. "Understanding world metals prices--Returns, volatility and diversification," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 127-140, September.
    16. Kenourgios, Dimitris & Dimitriou, Dimitrios, 2015. "Contagion of the Global Financial Crisis and the real economy: A regional analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 283-293.
    17. Yanan Li & David E. Giles, 2015. "Modelling Volatility Spillover Effects Between Developed Stock Markets and Asian Emerging Stock Markets," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 155-177, March.
    18. repec:dau:papers:123456789/13359 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Mutafoglu, Takvor H. & Tokat, Ekin & Tokat, Hakki A., 2012. "Forecasting precious metal price movements using trader positions," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 273-280.
    20. Engle, Robert, 2002. "Dynamic Conditional Correlation: A Simple Class of Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 339-350, July.
    21. Hamao, Yasushi & Masulis, Ronald W & Ng, Victor, 1990. "Correlations in Price Changes and Volatility across International Stock Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(2), pages 281-307.
    22. Chunchi Wu & Jinliang Li & Wei Zhang, 2005. "Intradaily periodicity and volatility spillovers between international stock index futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(6), pages 553-585, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kumar Ravi & Dhiman Babli, 2022. "Indian and Chinese Metal Futures Markets: A Linkage Analysis," Acta Universitatis Sapientiae, Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 10(1), pages 1-14, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kang, Sang Hoon & McIver, Ron & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2017. "Dynamic spillover effects among crude oil, precious metal, and agricultural commodity futures markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 19-32.
    2. McIver, Ron P. & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2020. "Financial crises and the dynamics of the spillovers between the U.S. and BRICS stock markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    3. Evrim Mandacı, Pınar & Cagli, Efe Çaglar & Taşkın, Dilvin, 2020. "Dynamic connectedness and portfolio strategies: Energy and metal markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    4. Farid, Saqib & Kayani, Ghulam Mujtaba & Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain, 2021. "Intraday volatility transmission among precious metals, energy and stocks during the COVID-19 pandemic," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    5. Caporin, Massimiliano & Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Arif, Muhammad & Hasan, Mudassar & Vo, Xuan Vinh & Hussain Shahzad, Syed Jawad, 2021. "Asymmetric and time-frequency spillovers among commodities using high-frequency data," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    6. Mensi, Walid & Al Rababa'a, Abdel Razzaq & Vo, Xuan Vinh & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2021. "Asymmetric spillover and network connectedness between crude oil, gold, and Chinese sector stock markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    7. Guhathakurta, Kousik & Dash, Saumya Ranjan & Maitra, Debasish, 2020. "Period specific volatility spillover based connectedness between oil and other commodity prices and their portfolio implications," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    8. Al-Yahyaee, Khamis Hamed & Mensi, Walid & Maitra, Debasish & Al-Jarrah, Idries Mohammad Wanas, 2019. "Portfolio management and dependencies among precious metal markets: Evidence from a Copula quantile-on-quantile approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    9. Mensi, Walid & Hernandez, Jose Arroeola & Yoon, Seong-Min & Vo, Xuan Vinh & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2021. "Spillovers and connectedness between major precious metals and major currency markets: The role of frequency factor," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    10. Imhotep Paul Alagidede & Gideon Boako & Bo Sjo, 2021. "African equity markets’ exposure to oil and other commodities - implications for global portfolio diversification," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 45(2), pages 288-315, April.
    11. Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Hasan, Mudassar & Arif, Muhammad & Suleman, Muhammad Tahir & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2022. "Oil and gold as a hedge and safe-haven for metals and agricultural commodities with portfolio implications," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    12. Akkoc, Ugur & Civcir, Irfan, 2019. "Dynamic linkages between strategic commodities and stock market in Turkey: Evidence from SVAR-DCC-GARCH model," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 231-239.
    13. Woon Sau Leung & Nicholas Taylor, 2013. "Testing for contagion: the impact of US structured markets on international financial markets," Chapters, in: Adrian R. Bell & Chris Brooks & Marcel Prokopczuk (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Finance, chapter 11, pages 256-284, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    14. Mensi, Walid & Nekhili, Ramzi & Vo, Xuan Vinh & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2021. "Oil and precious metals: Volatility transmission, hedging, and safe haven analysis from the Asian crisis to the COVID-19 crisis," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 73-96.
    15. repec:dau:papers:123456789/13359 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Vigne, Samuel A. & Lucey, Brian M. & O’Connor, Fergal A. & Yarovaya, Larisa, 2017. "The financial economics of white precious metals — A survey," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 292-308.
    17. Urom, Christian & Anochiwa, Lasbrey & Yuni, Denis & Idume, Gabriel, 2019. "Asymmetric linkages among precious metals, global equity and bond yields: The role of volatility and business cycle factors," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 20(C).
    18. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Floros, Christos & Kizys, Renatas, 2016. "Dynamic spillover effects in futures markets: UK and US evidence," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 406-418.
    19. Ana Escribano & Cristina Íñiguez, 2021. "The contagion phenomena of the Brexit process on main stock markets," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 4462-4481, July.
    20. Fei Su & Lili Zhai & Yunyan Zhou & Zixi Zhuang & Feifan Wang, 2024. "Risk contagion in financial markets: A systematic review using bibliometric methods," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 63(1), pages 163-199, March.
    21. Troster, Victor & Bouri, Elie & Roubaud, David, 2019. "A quantile regression analysis of flights-to-safety with implied volatilities," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 482-495.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • L61 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - Metals and Metal Products; Cement; Glass; Ceramics

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spd:journl:v:70:y:2020:i:3-4:p:42-55. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/depirgr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.