IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finana/v24y2012icp26-37.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Asymmetries, causality and correlation between FTSE100 spot and futures: A DCC-TGARCH-M analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Tao, Juan
  • Green, Christopher J.

Abstract

We use DCC-TGARCH-M to study asymmetries in the conditional variance in FTSE100 spot and futures returns before and after cost-reducing market microstructure changes on the London Stock Exchange and the London International Financial Futures Exchange. We find bidirectional causality-in-mean and that negative shocks have a larger impact on the conditional variances than positive shocks. There is little evidence of causality-in-variance. The results support a risk premium explanation of asymmetric volatility before the microstructure changes; afterwards, there is evidence of a risk premium effect in futures but a momentum effect in spot. Following the microstructure changes, the speed at which the markets absorbed news increased, as did the asymmetric volatility effect of bad news. We also document regular temporary declines in the conditional correlations following contract expiration. This is consistent with the increased uncertainty following expiration, when investors' attention switches to the next near contract, and the no-arbitrage linkage between spot and futures is temporarily reduced.

Suggested Citation

  • Tao, Juan & Green, Christopher J., 2012. "Asymmetries, causality and correlation between FTSE100 spot and futures: A DCC-TGARCH-M analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 26-37.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:24:y:2012:i:c:p:26-37
    DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2012.07.002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S105752191200066X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.irfa.2012.07.002?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cheng, Ai-Ru & Jahan-Parvar, Mohammad R. & Rothman, Philip, 2010. "An empirical investigation of stock market behavior in the Middle East and North Africa," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 413-427, June.
    2. Campbell, John Y. & Hentschel, Ludger, 1992. "No news is good news *1: An asymmetric model of changing volatility in stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 281-318, June.
    3. Chang, Chia-Lin & Khamkaew, Thanchanok & McAleer, Michael & Tansuchat, Roengchai, 2011. "Modelling conditional correlations in the volatility of Asian rubber spot and futures returns," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 81(7), pages 1482-1490.
    4. Antoniou, Antonios & Garrett, Ian, 1993. "To What Extent Did Stock Index Futures Contribute to the October 1987 Stock Market Crash?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 103(421), pages 1444-1461, November.
    5. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    6. Schwert, G William, 2002. "Tests for Unit Roots: A Monte Carlo Investigation," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 5-17, January.
    7. Chris Brooks & Olan T. Henry & Gita Persand, 2002. "The Effect of Asymmetries on Optimal Hedge Ratios," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75(2), pages 333-352, April.
    8. Tim Bollerslev & Julia Litvinova & George Tauchen, 2006. "Leverage and Volatility Feedback Effects in High-Frequency Data," The Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 4(3), pages 353-384.
    9. Chan, Kalok & Chan, K C & Karolyi, G Andrew, 1991. "Intraday Volatility in the Stock Index and Stock Index Futures Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 4(4), pages 657-684.
    10. Yiuman Tse, 1999. "Price discovery and volatility spillovers in the DJIA index and futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(8), pages 911-930, December.
    11. M. D. Racine & Lucy F. Ackert, 2000. "Time-Varying Volatility In Canadian And U.S. Stock Index And Index Futures Markets: A Multivariate Analysis," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 23(2), pages 129-143, June.
    12. Fujii, Eiji, 2005. "Intra and inter-regional causal linkages of emerging stock markets: evidence from Asia and Latin America in and out of crises," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 315-342, October.
    13. David McMillan & Alan Speight, 2003. "Asymmetric volatility dynamics in high frequency FTSE-100 stock index futures," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(8), pages 599-607.
    14. Glosten, Lawrence R & Jagannathan, Ravi & Runkle, David E, 1993. "On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1779-1801, December.
    15. Ling, Shiqing & McAleer, Michael, 2002. "Stationarity and the existence of moments of a family of GARCH processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 106(1), pages 109-117, January.
    16. Zhong, Maosen & Darrat, Ali F. & Otero, Rafael, 2004. "Price discovery and volatility spillovers in index futures markets: Some evidence from Mexico," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(12), pages 3037-3054, December.
    17. Engle, Robert, 2002. "Dynamic Conditional Correlation: A Simple Class of Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 339-350, July.
    18. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    19. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Ng, Lilian K., 1996. "A causality-in-variance test and its application to financial market prices," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1-2), pages 33-48.
    20. Mahmoud Wahab & Malek Lashgari, 1993. "Price dynamics and error correction in stock index and stock index futures markets: A cointegration approach," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(7), pages 711-742, October.
    21. Vicente Meneu & Hipòlit Torró, 2003. "Asymmetric covariance in spot‐futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(11), pages 1019-1046, November.
    22. Alex Frino & Michael D. McKenzie, 2002. "The pricing of stock index futures spreads at contract expiration," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(5), pages 451-469, May.
    23. Christie, Andrew A., 1982. "The stochastic behavior of common stock variances : Value, leverage and interest rate effects," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 407-432, December.
    24. Donald Lien & Y. K. Tse, 2002. "Some Recent Developments in Futures Hedging," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(3), pages 357-396, July.
    25. Chan, Kalok, 1992. "A Further Analysis of the Lead-Lag Relationship between the Cash Market and Stock Index Futures Market," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(1), pages 123-152.
    26. Ederington, Louis H. & Guan, Wei, 2010. "How asymmetric is U.S. stock market volatility?," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 225-248, May.
    27. Lien, Donald & Tse, Y K, 2002. "Some Recent Developments in Futures Hedging," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(3), pages 357-396, July.
    28. Bollerslev, Tim, 1990. "Modelling the Coherence in Short-run Nominal Exchange Rates: A Multivariate Generalized ARCH Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(3), pages 498-505, August.
    29. Engle, Robert F & Lilien, David M & Robins, Russell P, 1987. "Estimating Time Varying Risk Premia in the Term Structure: The Arch-M Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 391-407, March.
    30. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    31. Yin-Wong Cheung & Hung-Gay Fung, 1997. "Information Flows Between Eurodollar Spot and Futures Markets," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 1(4), pages 255-271, December.
    32. Green, Christopher J & Joujon, Emmanuel, 2000. "Unified Tests of Causality and Cost of Carry: The Pricing of the French Stock Index Futures Contract," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 5(2), pages 121-140, April.
    33. Jeff Fleming & Barbara Ostdiek & Robert E. Whaley, 1996. "Trading costs and the relative rates of price discovery in stock, futures, and option markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(4), pages 353-387, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Magkonis, Georgios & Tsouknidis, Dimitris A., 2017. "Dynamic spillover effects across petroleum spot and futures volatilities, trading volume and open interest," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 104-118.
    2. Gkillas, Konstantinos & Konstantatos, Christoforos & Floros, Christos & Tsagkanos, Athanasios, 2021. "Realized volatility spillovers between US spot and futures during ECB news: Evidence from the European sovereign debt crisis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    3. Meng, Bin & Chen, Shuiyang & Haralambides, Hercules & Kuang, Haibo & Fan, Lidong, 2023. "Information spillovers between carbon emissions trading prices and shipping markets: A time-frequency analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    4. Tsuji, Chikashi, 2018. "Return transmission and asymmetric volatility spillovers between oil futures and oil equities: New DCC-MEGARCH analyses," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 167-185.
    5. Qunwei Wang & Xingyu Dai & Dequn Zhou, 2020. "Dynamic Correlation and Risk Contagion Between “Black” Futures in China: A Multi-scale Variational Mode Decomposition Approach," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 55(4), pages 1117-1150, April.
    6. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Floros, Christos & Kizys, Renatas, 2016. "Dynamic spillover effects in futures markets: UK and US evidence," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 406-418.
    7. Tsuji, Chikashi, 2018. "New DCC analyses of return transmission, volatility spillovers, and optimal hedging among oil futures and oil equities in oil-producing countries," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 229(C), pages 1202-1217.
    8. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Kizys, Renatas & Floros, Christos, 2014. "Dynamic Spillover Effects in Futures Markets," MPRA Paper 53876, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Bentes, Sónia R., 2022. "On the stylized facts of precious metals’ volatility: A comparative analysis of pre- and during COVID-19 crisis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 600(C).
    10. Huo, Rui & Ahmed, Abdullahi D., 2018. "Relationships between Chinese stock market and its index futures market: Evaluating the impact of QFII scheme," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 135-152.
    11. Chen, Xiangyu & Tongurai, Jittima, 2022. "Spillovers and interdependency across base metals: Evidence from China's futures and spot markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    12. Konstantinos Tsiaras, 2020. "Contagion in Futures Metal Markets during the Recent Global Financial Crisis: Evidence from Gold, Silver, Copper, Zinc and Aluminium," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 70(3-4), pages 42-55, July-Dece.
    13. Konstantinos Gkillas & Christoforos Konstantatos & Costas Siriopoulos, 2021. "Uncertainty Due to Infectious Diseases and Stock–Bond Correlation," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-18, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Huo, Rui & Ahmed, Abdullahi D., 2018. "Relationships between Chinese stock market and its index futures market: Evaluating the impact of QFII scheme," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 135-152.
    2. Helena Chuliá & Hipòlit Torró, 2008. "The economic value of volatility transmission between the stock and bond markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(11), pages 1066-1094, November.
    3. Hou, Yang & Li, Steven, 2013. "Hedging performance of Chinese stock index futures: An empirical analysis using wavelet analysis and flexible bivariate GARCH approaches," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 109-131.
    4. Lütkepohl,Helmut & Krätzig,Markus (ed.), 2004. "Applied Time Series Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521547871.
    5. Hou, Yang & Li, Steven, 2016. "Information transmission between U.S. and China index futures markets: An asymmetric DCC GARCH approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 884-897.
    6. Franses,Philip Hans & Dijk,Dick van & Opschoor,Anne, 2014. "Time Series Models for Business and Economic Forecasting," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521520911.
    7. Hou, Yang & Li, Steven & Wen, Fenghua, 2019. "Time-varying volatility spillover between Chinese fuel oil and stock index futures markets based on a DCC-GARCH model with a semi-nonparametric approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 119-143.
    8. Thakolsri, Supachok & Sethapramote, Yuthana & Jiranyakul, Komain, 2015. "Asymmetric volatility of the Thai stock market: evidence from high-frequency data," MPRA Paper 67181, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Asai, Manabu & McAleer, Michael, 2015. "Leverage and feedback effects on multifactor Wishart stochastic volatility for option pricing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 187(2), pages 436-446.
    10. Amira, Khaled & Taamouti, Abderrahim & Tsafack, Georges, 2011. "What drives international equity correlations? Volatility or market direction?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 1234-1263, October.
    11. Martínez, Beatriz & Torró, Hipòlit, 2015. "European natural gas seasonal effects on futures hedging," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 154-168.
    12. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Christoffersen, Peter F. & Diebold, Francis X., 2013. "Financial Risk Measurement for Financial Risk Management," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1127-1220, Elsevier.
    13. Hou, Yang (Greg) & Li, Steven, 2020. "Volatility and skewness spillover between stock index and stock index futures markets during a crash period: New evidence from China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 166-188.
    14. Sebastien Valeyre & Sofiane Aboura & Denis Grebenkov, 2019. "The Reactive Beta Model," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 42(1), pages 71-113, March.
    15. Kao, Chung-Wei & Wan, Jer-Yuh, 2009. "Information transmission and market interactions across the Atlantic -- an empirical study on the natural gas market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 152-161, January.
    16. Martínez, Beatriz & Torró, Hipòlit, 2018. "Hedging spark spread risk with futures," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 731-746.
    17. Muthucattu Thomas Paul, 2018. "The Issues and Implications About the Volatility of the Stock and the Bond Prices and Their Returns and the Volatility of Interest Rates and Inflation - Which Are Being Researched in Finance and Macro," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 5(2), pages 125-142, March.
    18. Hisham Al Refai & Gazi Mainul Hassan, 2018. "The Impact of Market-wide Volatility on Time-varying Risk: Evidence from Qatar Stock Exchange," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 17(2_suppl), pages 239-258, August.
    19. Pagan, Adrian, 1996. "The econometrics of financial markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 15-102, May.
    20. Sang Hoon Kang & SEONG-MIN YOON, 2008. "Asymmetry and Long Memory Features in Volatility: Evidence From Korean Stock Market," Korean Economic Review, Korean Economic Association, vol. 24, pages 383-412.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Index futures; Causality; Conditional correlation; DCC-TGARCH-M; CCF test;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:24:y:2012:i:c:p:26-37. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620166 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.