Modelling Conditional Correlations in the Volatility of Asian Rubber Spot and Futures Returns
Asia is presently the most important market for the production and consumption of natural rubber. World prices of rubber are not only subject to changes in demand, but also to speculation regarding future markets. Japan and Singapore are the major futures markets for rubber, while Thailand is one of the world's largest producers of rubber. As rubber prices are influenced by external markets, it is important to analyse the relationship between the relevant markets in Thailand, Japan and Singapore. The analysis is conducted using several alternative multivariate GARCH models. The empirical results indicate that the constant conditional correlations arising from the CCC model of Bollerslev (1990) lie in the low to medium range. The results from the VARMA-GARCH model of Ling and McAleer (2003) and the VARMA-AGARCH model of McAleer et al. (2009) suggest the presence of volatility spillovers and asymmetric effects of positive and negative return shocks on conditional volatility. Finally, the DCC model of Engle (2002) suggests that the conditional correlations can vary dramatically over time. In general, the dynamic conditional correlations in rubber spot and futures returns shocks can be independent or interdependent.
|Date of creation:||Oct 2009|
|Date of revision:||Nov 2009|
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- Michael McAleer & Suhejla Hoti & Felix Chan, 2009. "Structure and Asymptotic Theory for Multivariate Asymmetric Conditional Volatility," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(5), pages 422-440.
- McAleer, Michael, 2005. "Automated Inference And Learning In Modeling Financial Volatility," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(01), pages 232-261, February.
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- Shiqing Ling & Michael McAleer, 2001.
"Asymptotic Theory for a Vector ARMA-GARCH Model,"
ISER Discussion Paper
0549, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
- Engle, Robert, 2002. "Dynamic Conditional Correlation: A Simple Class of Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 339-350, July.
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1990. "Modelling the Coherence in Short-run Nominal Exchange Rates: A Multivariate Generalized ARCH Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(3), pages 498-505, August.
- Jae H. Kim & Hristos Doucouliagos, 2005. "Realized Volatility and Correlation in Grain Futures Markets: Testing for Spill-Over Effects," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 22/05, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
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