Asset market linkages: Evidence from financial, commodity and real estate assets
We use a general Markov switching model to examine the relationships between returns over three different asset classes: financial assets (US stocks and Treasury bonds), commodities (oil and gold) and real estate assets (US Case-Shiller index). We confirm the existence of two distinct regimes: a "tranquil" regime with periods of economic expansion and a "crisis" regime with periods of economic decline. The tranquil regime is characterized by lower volatility and significantly positive stock returns. During these periods, there is also evidence of a flight from quality - from gold to stocks. By contrast, the crisis regime is characterized by higher volatility and sharply negative stock returns, along with evidence of contagion between stocks, oil and real estate. Furthermore, during these periods, there is strong evidence of a flight to quality - from stocks to Treasury bonds.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Liu, Crocker H, et al, 1990. "The Integration of the Real Estate Market and the Stock Market: Some Preliminary Evidence," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 3(3), pages 261-82, September.
- Guidolin, Massimo & Timmermann, Allan, 2007.
"Asset allocation under multivariate regime switching,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,
Elsevier, vol. 31(11), pages 3503-3544, November.
- Massimo Guidolin & Allan Timmerman, 2006. "Asset allocation under multivariate regime switching," Working Papers 2005-002, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Fleming, Jeff & Kirby, Chris & Ostdiek, Barbara, 1998. "Information and volatility linkages in the stock, bond, and money markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 111-137, July.
- Baur, Dirk G. & Lucey, Brian M., 2009. "Flights and contagion--An empirical analysis of stock-bond correlations," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 339-352, December.
- Alizadeh, Amir H. & Nomikos, Nikos K. & Pouliasis, Panos K., 2008. "A Markov regime switching approach for hedging energy commodities," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1970-1983, September.
- Philipp Hartmann & Stefan Straetmans & Casper G. de Vries, 2001.
"Asset market linkages in crisis periods,"
727, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Hartmann, Philipp & Straetmans, Stefan & de Vries, Casper, 2001. "Asset market linkages in crisis periods," Working Paper Series 0071, European Central Bank.
- Hartmann, P. & Straetmans, S. & De Vries, C.G., 2001. "Asset Market Linkages in Crisis Periods," Papers 71, Quebec a Montreal - Recherche en gestion.
- de Vries, Casper G & Hartmann, Philipp & Straetmans, Stefan, 2001. "Asset Market Linkages in Crisis Periods," CEPR Discussion Papers 2916, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert, 1998.
"Regime Switches in Interest Rates,"
NBER Working Papers
6508, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Henry, Ólan T., 2009. "Regime switching in the relationship between equity returns and short-term interest rates in the UK," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 405-414, February.
- Dirk G. Baur & Thomas K. McDermott, .
"Is gold a safe haven? International evidence,"
The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series
- Nael Al-Anaswah & Bernd Wilfling, 2009.
"Identification of speculative bubbles using state-space models with Markov-switching,"
CQE Working Papers
0309, Center for Quantitative Economics (CQE), University of Muenster.
- Al-Anaswah, Nael & Wilfling, Bernd, 2011. "Identification of speculative bubbles using state-space models with Markov-switching," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 1073-1086, May.
- Dirk G. Baur & Brian M. Lucey, 2010.
"Is Gold a Hedge or a Safe Haven? An Analysis of Stocks, Bonds and Gold,"
The Financial Review,
Eastern Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 217-229, 05.
- Dirk G. Baur & Brian M. Lucey, 2007. "Is Gold a Hedge or a Safe Haven? An Analysis of Stocks, Bonds and Gold," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp198, IIIS.
- Alessandro Beber & Michael W. Brandt & Kenneth A. Kavajecz, 2006.
"Flight-to-Quality or Flight-to-Liquidity? Evidence From the Euro-Area Bond Market,"
NBER Working Papers
12376, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Alessandro Beber & Michael W. Brandt & Kenneth A. Kavajecz, 2009. "Flight-to-Quality or Flight-to-Liquidity? Evidence from the Euro-Area Bond Market," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(3), pages 925-957, March.
- Hamilton, James D, 1983. "Oil and the Macroeconomy since World War II," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 228-48, April.
- Bowman, Robert G. & Chan, Kam Fong & Comer, Matthew R., 2010. "Diversification, rationality and the Asian economic crisis," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 1-23, January.
- Maheu, John M & McCurdy, Thomas H, 2000. "Identifying Bull and Bear Markets in Stock Returns," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(1), pages 100-112, January.
- Dirk G. Baur, 2007.
"Stock-bond co-movements and cross-country linkages,"
The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series
- Dirk G. Baur, 2010. "Stock-bond co-movements and cross-country linkages," International Journal of Banking, Accounting and Finance, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 2(2), pages 111-129.
- Pelletier, Denis, 2006.
"Regime switching for dynamic correlations,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 445-473.
- Denis Pelletier, 2004. "Regime Switching for Dynamic Correlations," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 230, Econometric Society.
- Sadorsky, Perry, 1999. "Oil price shocks and stock market activity," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 449-469, October.
- Massimo Guidolin & Allan Timmerman, 2005.
"An econometric model of nonlinear dynamics in the joint distribution of stock and bond returns,"
2005-003, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Allan Timmermann & Massimo Guidolin, 2006. "An econometric model of nonlinear dynamics in the joint distribution of stock and bond returns," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(1), pages 1-22.
- J. Piplack & S. Straetmans, 2009.
"Comovements of Different Asset Classes During Market Stress,"
09-09, Utrecht School of Economics.
- Jan Piplack & Stefan Straetmans, 2010. "Comovements Of Different Asset Classes During Market Stress," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(3), pages 385-400, 08.
- Hamilton, James D & Gang, Lin, 1996. "Stock Market Volatility and the Business Cycle," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(5), pages 573-93, Sept.-Oct.
- Panchenko, Valentyn & Wu, Eliza, 2009. "Time-varying market integration and stock and bond return concordance in emerging markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1014-1021, June.
- Daniel C. Quan & Sheridan Titman, 1999. "Do Real Estate Prices and Stock Prices Move Together? An International Analysis," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 27(2), pages 183-207.
- Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
- Jones, Charles M & Kaul, Gautam, 1996. " Oil and the Stock Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(2), pages 463-91, June.
- Driesprong, Gerben & Jacobsen, Ben & Maat, Benjamin, 2008. "Striking oil: Another puzzle?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 307-327, August.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:35:y:2011:i:6:p:1415-1426. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.