IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/eyd/cp2013/245.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Impact of Oil Prices on Sectoral Returns: An Empirical Analysis from Borsa Istanbul

Author

Listed:
  • Gaye Gencer

    (Business Administration Department, Yeditepe University)

  • Sercan Demiralay

    (International Finance Department, Yeditepe University)

Abstract

Oil prices affecting production costs, inflation rates and therefore economic growth, have a direct impact on stock market returns. In the last two decades sharp increases in oil prices led way to stock market collapses which were transmitted to the global economy as downturns. This paper examines the relationship between crude oil prices and sectoral returns of 18 sub-indices from Borsa Istanbul. We use monthly data for the period between January 2002 and April 2013. We apply multivariate time series analysis by conducting VAR (Vector Auto-Regression) and VECM (Vector Error Correction Model) methodology to explore the short-run and the long-run dynamics for the series under investigation. We also employ impulse response and Granger causality methods to investigate the structural relationship between the variables. We figure out a long-run equilibrium relation and a uni-directional causality from oil prices to chemical-petroleum-plastic sub-index as oil prices directly affect the revenues of the companies operating in this sector. For the other sub-indices the empirical results suggest no long-run equilibrium relation.

Suggested Citation

  • Gaye Gencer & Sercan Demiralay, 2013. "The Impact of Oil Prices on Sectoral Returns: An Empirical Analysis from Borsa Istanbul," EY International Congress on Economics I (EYC2013), October 24-25, 2013, Ankara, Turkey 245, Ekonomik Yaklasim Association.
  • Handle: RePEc:eyd:cp2013:245
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.ekonomikyaklasim.org/eyc2013/?download=Paper%20245.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dirk G. Baur & Brian M. Lucey, 2010. "Is Gold a Hedge or a Safe Haven? An Analysis of Stocks, Bonds and Gold," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 217-229, May.
    2. Hamilton, James D., 1996. "This is what happened to the oil price-macroeconomy relationship," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 215-220, October.
    3. Michael Dooley & Peter Isard & Mark Taylor, 1992. "Exchange Rates, Country Preferences, and Gold," NBER Working Papers 4183, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. P. Hartmann & S. Straetmans & C. G. de Vries, 2004. "Asset Market Linkages in Crisis Periods," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(1), pages 313-326, February.
    5. Hong, Harrison & Torous, Walter & Valkanov, Rossen, 2007. "Do industries lead stock markets?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(2), pages 367-396, February.
    6. Aggarwal, Raj & Lucey, Brian M., 2007. "Psychological barriers in gold prices?," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 217-230.
    7. Francesco Ravazzolo & Philip Rothman, 2013. "Oil and U.S. GDP: A Real‐Time Out‐of‐Sample Examination," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(2-3), pages 449-463, March.
    8. Wang, Kuan-Min & Lee, Yuan-Ming & Thi, Thanh-Binh Nguyen, 2011. "Time and place where gold acts as an inflation hedge: An application of long-run and short-run threshold model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 806-819, May.
    9. Lutz Kilian & Cheolbeom Park, 2009. "The Impact Of Oil Price Shocks On The U.S. Stock Market," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1267-1287, November.
    10. Solnik, Bruno, 1993. "The performance of international asset allocation strategies using conditioning information," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 33-55, June.
    11. Sadorsky, Perry, 1999. "Oil price shocks and stock market activity," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 449-469, October.
    12. Jones, Charles M & Kaul, Gautam, 1996. " Oil and the Stock Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(2), pages 463-491, June.
    13. Ciner Cetin, 2001. "Energy Shocks and Financial Markets: Nonlinear Linkages," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 5(3), pages 1-11, October.
    14. Driesprong, Gerben & Jacobsen, Ben & Maat, Benjamin, 2008. "Striking oil: Another puzzle?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 307-327, August.
    15. Malik, Farooq & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2007. "Shock and volatility transmission in the oil, US and Gulf equity markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 357-368.
    16. Aggarwal, Raj & Akhigbe, Aigbe & Mohanty, Sunil K., 2012. "Oil price shocks and transportation firm asset prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1370-1379.
    17. Filis, George & Degiannakis, Stavros & Floros, Christos, 2011. "Dynamic correlation between stock market and oil prices: The case of oil-importing and oil-exporting countries," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 152-164, June.
    18. Capie, Forrest & Mills, Terence C. & Wood, Geoffrey, 2005. "Gold as a hedge against the dollar," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 343-352, October.
    19. Larsson, Karl & Nossman, Marcus, 2011. "Jumps and stochastic volatility in oil prices: Time series evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 504-514, May.
    20. Lee, Bi-Juan & Yang, Chin Wei & Huang, Bwo-Nung, 2012. "Oil price movements and stock markets revisited: A case of sector stock price indexes in the G-7 countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1284-1300.
    21. Sadorsky, Perry, 2001. "Risk factors in stock returns of Canadian oil and gas companies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 17-28, January.
    22. Hamilton, James D, 1983. "Oil and the Macroeconomy since World War II," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 228-248, April.
    23. Babatunde Olatunji Odusami, 2009. "Crude oil shocks and stock market returns," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(4), pages 291-303.
    24. Davidson, Sinclair & Faff, Robert & Hillier, David, 2003. "Gold factor exposures in international asset pricing," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 271-289, July.
    25. Lee, Kiseok & Ni, Shawn, 2002. "On the dynamic effects of oil price shocks: a study using industry level data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 823-852, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Singhal, Shelly & Ghosh, Sajal, 2016. "Returns and volatility linkages between international crude oil price, metal and other stock indices in India: Evidence from VAR-DCC-GARCH models," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 276-288.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    oil price shocks; sector indices; impulse response functions; variance decompositions;

    JEL classification:

    • M2 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Business Economics
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eyd:cp2013:245. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ozan Eruygur). General contact details of provider: http://www.ekonomikyaklasim.org .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.