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Return and Volatility Spillovers among the East Asian Equity Markets

  • Kamil Yilmaz

    ()

    (Koc University)

This article examines the extent of contagion and interdependence across the East Asian equity markets since early 1990s and compares the ongoing crisis with earlier episodes. Using the forecast error variance decomposition from a vector autoregression, we derive return and volatility spillover indices over the rolling sub-sample windows. We show that there is substantial difference between the behavior of the East Asian return and volatility spillover indices over time. While the return spillover index reveals increased integration among the East Asian equity markets, the volatility spillover index experiences significant bursts during major market crises, including the East Asian crisis. The fact that both return and volatility spillover indices reached their respective peaks during the current global financial crisis attests to the severity of the current episode.

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File URL: http://eaf.ku.edu.tr/sites/eaf.ku.edu.tr/files/erf_wp_0907.pdf
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Paper provided by Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum in its series Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers with number 0907.

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Length: 25 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:koc:wpaper:0907
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  1. Diebold, Francis X. & Yilmaz, Kamil, 2012. "Better to give than to receive: Predictive directional measurement of volatility spillovers," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 57-66.
  2. Francis X. Diebold & Kamil Yilmaz, 2007. "Measuring Financial Asset Return and Volatility Spillovers, With Application to Global Equity Markets," PIER Working Paper Archive 07-002, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
  3. Pesaran, M. H. & Shin, Y., 1997. "Generalised Impulse Response Analysis in Linear Multivariate Models," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9710, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  4. Edwards, Sebastian & Susmel, Raul, 2001. "Volatility dependence and contagion in emerging equity markets," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 505-532, December.
  5. Francis X. Diebold / Kamil Yilmaz, 2009. "Equity Market Spillovers in the Americas," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 12(2), pages 55-65, August.
  6. Garman, Mark B & Klass, Michael J, 1980. "On the Estimation of Security Price Volatilities from Historical Data," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 53(1), pages 67-78, January.
  7. Baur, Dirk G. & Fry, Renée A., 2009. "Multivariate contagion and interdependence," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 353-366, September.
  8. Dooley, Michael & Hutchison, Michael, 2009. "Transmission of the U.S. subprime crisis to emerging markets: Evidence on the decoupling-recoupling hypothesis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(8), pages 1331-1349, December.
  9. Nathaniel Frank & Heiko Hesse, 2009. "Financial Spillovers to Emerging Markets during the Global Financial Crisis," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 59(6), pages 507-521, December.
  10. Kristin Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 1999. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Co-movements," NBER Working Papers 7267, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Baur, Dirk, 2003. "Testing for contagion--mean and volatility contagion," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 13(4-5), pages 405-422, December.
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