IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/cem/jaecon/v1y1998n1p55-86.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Interest Rate Volatily, Contagion and Convergence: And Empirical Investigation of the Cases of Argentina, Chile and México

Author

Listed:

Abstract

Current debates on globalization have tended to focus on financial market volatility and contagion. In fact, many proponents of the imposition of some form of capital restrictions in emerging markets have argued that these would help reduce - or even eliminate -spillover across emerging market. Although this has been an old concern among developing economies, it has become more generalized after the Mexican, East Asian and Russian crises. In this paper I use high frequency data on short term nominal interest rates during the 1990s in three Latin American countries - Argentina, Chile and Mexico -- to analyze whether there has been volatility contagion from Mexico to the two South American nations. The results obtained from the estimation of augmented GARCH equations indicate, quite strongly, that while there has been volatility contagion from Mexico to Argentina, there has been no volatility contagion from Mexico to Chile. These results also indicate, however, that with the exception of a brief period in 1995, nominal interest rates have been more volatile in Chile than in Argentina. The results reported in this paper also indicate that interest rate differentials with respect to the US have tended to disappear somewhat slowly in both Chile and Argentina. Moreover, the estimation of rolling regressions for Chile indicate that after capital controls on capital inflows were imposed, interest rate differentials became more sluggish and tended to disappear more slowly than during the free capital mobility period.

Suggested Citation

  • Sebastian Edwards, 1998. "Interest Rate Volatily, Contagion and Convergence: And Empirical Investigation of the Cases of Argentina, Chile and México," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 1, pages 55-86, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:cem:jaecon:v:1:y:1998:n:1:p:55-86
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ucema.edu.ar/publicaciones/download/volume1/edwards.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mr. Michael P. Dooley, 1995. "A Survey of Academic Literatureon Controls Over International Capital Transactions," IMF Working Papers 1995/127, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Mr. Donald J Mathieson & Ms. Liliana Rojas-Suárez & Mr. Michael P. Dooley, 1996. "Capital Mobility and Exchange Market Intervention in Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 1996/131, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Michael P. Dooley, 1995. "A Survey of Academic Literature on Controls over International Capital Transactions," NBER Working Papers 5352, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kamel Malik Bensafta, 2014. "A Regional Analysis of Markets Uncertainty Spillover," Working Papers halshs-01203692, HAL.
    2. Demetrio Lacava & Luca Scaffidi Domianello, 2021. "The Incidence of Spillover Effects during the Unconventional Monetary Policies Era," Journal of Risk and Financial Management, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 14(6), pages 1-18, May.
    3. Bunda, Irina & Hamann, A. Javier & Lall, Subir, 2009. "Correlations in emerging market bonds: The role of local and global factors," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 67-96, June.
    4. Wajih Khallouli & Rene Sandretto, 2011. "Testing for “Contagion” of the Subprime Crisis on the Middle East And North African Stock Markets: A Markov Switching EGARCH Approach," Working Papers 609, Economic Research Forum, revised 08 Jan 2011.
    5. Sebastian Edwards & Raúl Susmel, 1999. "Contagion and Volatility in the 1990s," CEMA Working Papers: Serie Documentos de Trabajo. 153, Universidad del CEMA.
    6. Sebastian Edwards & I. Igal Magendzo, 2003. "Dollarization and economic performance: What do we really know?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(4), pages 351-363.
    7. Echeverria Garaigorta, Paulina Elisa & Iza Padilla, María Amaya, 2011. "Business cycles in a small open economy: The case of Hong Kong," DFAEII Working Papers 2011-07, University of the Basque Country - Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II.
    8. Younes Boujelbène & Majdi Ksantini, 2009. "La transmission entre les marchés boursiers :Une analyse en composante principale," Brussels Economic Review, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles, vol. 52(2), pages 161-194.
    9. Joshua C.C. Chan & Cody Yu-Ling Hsiao & Renée A. Fry-McKibbin, 2013. "A Regime Switching Skew-normal Model for Measuring Financial Crisis and Contagion," CAMA Working Papers 2013-15, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    10. Sebastian Edwards, 1999. "How Effective Are Capital Controls?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(4), pages 65-84, Fall.
    11. repec:onb:oenbwp:y::i:65:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Yu-Ling Hsiao, Cody & Ai, Dan & Wei, Xinyang & Sheng, Ni, 2021. "The contagious effect of China’s energy policy on stock markets: The case of the solar photovoltaic industry," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 74-86.
    13. Sebastian Edwards, 2000. "Contagion," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(7), pages 873-900, July.
    14. Csontó, Balázs, 2014. "Emerging market sovereign bond spreads and shifts in global market sentiment," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 58-74.
    15. Woon Sau Leung & Nicholas Taylor, 2013. "Testing for contagion: the impact of US structured markets on international financial markets," Chapters, in: Adrian R. Bell & Chris Brooks & Marcel Prokopczuk (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Finance, chapter 11, pages 256-284, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    16. Baur, Dirk, 2003. "Testing for contagion--mean and volatility contagion," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 13(4-5), pages 405-422, December.
    17. Jorge Eduardo Carrera & Mariano Feliz & Demian Panigo & Marcelo Saavedra, 2001. "Dollarization as an Asymmetric Monetary Union. The Case of Argentina," Anais do XXIX Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 29th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 043, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sebastian Edwards, 2007. "Capital Controls, Sudden Stops, and Current Account Reversals," NBER Chapters, in: Capital Controls and Capital Flows in Emerging Economies: Policies, Practices, and Consequences, pages 73-120, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Sebastian Edwards, 1998. "Interest Rate Volatility, Capital Controls, and Contagion," NBER Working Papers 6756, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Sebastian Edwards, 2000. "Capital Flows, Real Exchange Rates, and Capital Controls: Some Latin American Experiences," NBER Chapters, in: Capital Flows and the Emerging Economies: Theory, Evidence, and Controversies, pages 197-246, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Peter Kenen, 1996. "Analyzing and managing exchange-rate crises," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 469-492, March.
    5. Reisen, Helmut, 1997. "Liberalizing foreign investments by pension funds: Positive and normative aspects," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 25(7), pages 1173-1182, July.
    6. Srinivas, P.S. & Whitehouse, Edward & Yermo, Juan, 2000. "Regulating private pension funds’ structure, performance and investments: cross-country evidence," MPRA Paper 14753, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Sebastian Edwards, 1999. "Crisis Prevention: Lessons from Mexico and East Asia," NBER Working Papers 7233, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Chinn, Menzie D. & Ito, Hiro, 2006. "What matters for financial development? Capital controls, institutions, and interactions," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 163-192, October.
    9. Bernardo S. de M. Carvalho & Márcio G. P. Garcia, 2008. "Ineffective Controls on Capital Inflows under Sophisticated Financial Markets: Brazil in the Nineties," NBER Chapters, in: Financial Markets Volatility and Performance in Emerging Markets, pages 29-96, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Zan Oplotnik, 2003. "Capital Flows Adjustment Policy in Slovenia: Assessment of Design and Efficiency," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(2), pages 209-225.
    11. Žan Oplotnik, 2003. "Bank of slovenia adjustment policy to surges in capital flows," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2003(3), pages 217-232.
    12. Jorge Eduardo Carrera & Mariano Feliz & Demian Panigo & Marcelo Saavedra, 2001. "Dollarization as an Asymmetric Monetary Union. The Case of Argentina," Anais do XXIX Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 29th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 043, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    13. James Heintz & Robert Pollin, 2008. "Targeting Employment Expansion, Economic Growth and Development in Sub-Saharan Africa: Outlines of an Alternative Economic Programme for the Region," Published Studies targeting_employment_expa, Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts at Amherst.
    14. Clara Garcia, 2004. "Capital Inflows, Policy Responses, and Their Ill Consequences: Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia in the Decade Before the Crises," Working Papers wp81, Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts at Amherst.
    15. Sebastian Edwards, 2012. "The Federal Reserve, the Emerging Markets, and Capital Controls: A High‐Frequency Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(s2), pages 151-184, December.
    16. Yashiv, Eran, 1998. "Capital controls policy an intertemporal perspective," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 219-245, February.
    17. Hernán Rincón, 2000. "Efectividad del control a los flujos de capital: Un reexamen empírico de la experiencia reciente en Colombia," Revista de Economía del Rosario, Universidad del Rosario, February.
    18. Sebastian Edwards, 1999. "International capital flows and emerging markets: amending the rules of the game?," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, vol. 43(Jun), pages 137-171.
    19. Cardenas, Mauricio & Barrera, Felipe, 1997. "On the effectiveness of capital controls: The experience of Colombia during the 1990s," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 27-57, October.
    20. Welch, John H., 1996. "Capital flows and economic growth: Reflections on Latin America in the 1990s," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(Supplemen), pages 101-114.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cem:jaecon:v:1:y:1998:n:1:p:55-86. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cemaaar.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Valeria Dowding (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cemaaar.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.