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Capital Mobility and Exchange Market Intervention in Developing Countries

  • Michael P. Dooley
  • Donald J. Mathieson
  • Liliana Rojas-Suarez

This paper develops a new technique for measuring changes in the degree of capital mobility confronting a developing country that has restrictions on capital flows and official ceilings on domestic interest rates. Because such official controls rule out the use of traditional interest rate parity conditions to measure changes in the degree of capital mobility, the analysis first examines an intertemporal model of an open economy. This model describes the linkages between the cost of undertaking disguised capital flows, the current account, capital controls, domestic and external financial market conditions, and the authorities' foreign exchange market interventions. The model suggests a means of measuring changes in the cost of undertaking disguised capital flows, based on the past history of differentials between external interest rates (adjusted for exchange rate changes) and domestic ceiling interest rates, provided that the authorities' foreign exchange market activities are incorporated into the analysis. Parameter estimates for Korea, Mexico, and the Philippines indicate that the real cost of undertaking disguised capital flows declined on average by nearly 70 percent between the early 1970s and the late 1980s.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 6247.

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Date of creation: Oct 1997
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:6247
Note: IFM
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  1. Michael Dooley & Jeffrey Frankel & Donald J. Mathieson, 1987. "International Capital Mobility: What Do Saving-Investment Correlations Tell Us?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 34(3), pages 503-530, September.
  2. Sebastian Edwards & Mohsin S. Khan, 1985. "Interest Rate Determination in Developing Countries: A Conceptual Framework (Détermination du taux d'intérêt dans les pays en développement: cadre théorique) (Determinación de los tipos de inter," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 32(3), pages 377-403, September.
  3. McNelis, Paul D & Neftci, Salih N, 1982. "Policy-Dependent Parameters in the Presence of Optimal Learning: An Application of Kalman Filtering to the Fair and Sargent Supply-Side Equations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 64(2), pages 296-306, May.
  4. Daniel Gros, 1987. "The Effectiveness of Capital Controls: Implications for Monetary Autonomy in the Presence of Incomplete Market Separation," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 34(4), pages 621-642, December.
  5. John F. O. Bilson & Richard C. Marston, 1984. "Exchange Rate Theory and Practice," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bils84-1, October.
  6. Montiel, Peter J, 1994. "Capital Mobility in Developing Countries: Some Measurement Issues and Empirical Estimates," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 8(3), pages 311-50, September.
  7. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521454384 is not listed on IDEAS
  8. Michael P. Dooley & Donald J. Mathieson, 1992. "Exchange rate policy, international capital mobility and monetary policy instruments," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 68-95.
  9. Wickens, Michael R, 1982. "The Efficient Estimation of Econometric Models with Rational Expectations," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(1), pages 55-67, January.
  10. Helmut Reisen & Hélène Yèches, 1991. "Time-Varying Estimates on the Openness of the Capital Account in Korea and Taiwan," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 42, OECD Publishing.
  11. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521405737 is not listed on IDEAS
  12. Haque, Nadeem U. & Montiel, Peter, 1991. "Capital mobility in developing countries: Some empirical tests," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 19(10), pages 1391-1398, October.
  13. José Saúl Lizondo, 1983. "Interest Differential and Covered Arbitrage," NBER Chapters, in: Financial Policies and the World Capital Market: The Problem of Latin American Countries, pages 221-244 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Liliana Rojas-Suárez & Donald J. Mathieson, 1993. "Liberalization of the Capital Account; Experiences and Issues," IMF Occasional Papers 103, International Monetary Fund.
  15. David Y. Wong, 1988. "What do saving - investment relationships tell us about capital mobility?," Working Papers 88-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  16. Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1993. "Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(1), pages 108-151, March.
  17. Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "Tax Policy and International Competitiveness," NBER Working Papers 2007, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Liliana Rojas-Suárez, 1992. "Currency Substitution and Inflation in Peru," IMF Working Papers 92/33, International Monetary Fund.
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