IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

J-Curve Dynamics and the Marshall–Lerner Condition: Evidence from Azerbaijan

  • Rustam Jamilov


Is there a J-curve for Azerbaijan? In answering this question, we are estimating a conventional trade model for Azerbaijan vis-à-vis its major trading partner—Europe. We are employing a Johansen approach to cointegration and error correction modeling. Our results suggest that a real depreciation of the Azerbaijani Manat will cause a decline in the balance of trade in the short run, and an increase in the long run. When we include the prices of exports and imports into the analysis, the new model shows that the terms of trade ratio diminishes following the devaluation but does not return to its pre-depreciation level in the long run. The balance of trade, however, continues to improve. This observation points at the presence of an underlying volume effect which is the key driver of the trade balance growth. Overall, the results of this study suggest a fulfillment of the Marshall–Lerner condition criterion, indicate the existence of the J-curve, and of the price and volume effects. Copyright Springer-Verlag Wien 2013

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL:
Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by Springer in its journal Transition Studies Review.

Volume (Year): 19 (2013)
Issue (Month): 3 (February)
Pages: 313-323

in new window

Handle: RePEc:spr:trstrv:v:19:y:2013:i:3:p:313-323
Contact details of provider: Web page:

Order Information: Web:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Ferda Halicioglu, 2008. "The J-curve dynamics of Turkey: an application of ARDL model," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(18), pages 2423-2429.
  2. Rose, Andrew K. & Yellen, Janet L., 1989. "Is there a J-curve?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 53-68, July.
  3. Barro, Robert J & Mankiw, N Gregory & Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1995. "Capital Mobility in Neoclassical Models of Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 103-15, March.
  4. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2000. "The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is There a Common Cause?," NBER Working Papers 7777, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Breusch, T S & Pagan, A R, 1980. "The Lagrange Multiplier Test and Its Applications to Model Specification in Econometrics," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(1), pages 239-53, January.
  6. Peter Pedroni, 1999. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Department of Economics Working Papers 2000-02, Department of Economics, Williams College.
  7. Sergio Da Silva & Guilherme Moura, 2005. "Is There a Brazilian J-Curve?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 6(10), pages 1-17.
  8. Martin Feldstein & Philippe Bacchetta, 1989. "National Saving and International Investment," NBER Working Papers 3164, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Suzanne McCoskey & Chihwa Kao, 1998. "A residual-based test of the null of cointegration in panel data," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(1), pages 57-84.
  10. Afxentiou, Panos & Serletis, Apostolos, 1993. "International Capital Mobility and the Long-Run Investrnent and Saving in Canada," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio di Genova, vol. 46(2-3), pages 147-167.
  11. Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P, 1998. "Savings-Investment Correlations: Transitory versus Permanent," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 66(0), pages 17-38, Supplemen.
  12. Feldstein, Martin, 1983. "Domestic saving and international capital movements in the long run and the short run," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(1-2), pages 129-151.
  13. Montiel, Peter J., 1993. "Capital mobility in developing countries : some measurement issues and empirical estimates," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1103, The World Bank.
  14. Lawrence H. Summers, 1988. "Tax Policy and International Competitiveness," NBER Chapters, in: International Aspects of Fiscal Policies, pages 349-386 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Aizenman, Joshua & Ito, Hiro, 2012. "Trilemma Policy Convergence Patterns and Output Volatility," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt5vb313vr, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
  16. Helmut Reisen & Hélène Yèches, 1991. "Time-Varying Estimates on the Openness of the Capital Account in Korea and Taiwan," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 42, OECD Publishing.
  17. Pesaran, M.H., 2004. "‘General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels’," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0435, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  18. Gupta-Kapoor Anju & Ramakrishnan Uma, 1999. "Is There A J-Curve? A New Estimation for Japan," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(4), pages 71-79.
  19. Coakley, Jerry & Hasan, Farida & Smith, Ron, 1999. "Saving, Investment, and Capital Mobility in LDCs," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(4), pages 632-40, November.
  20. Tesar, Linda L., 1993. "International risk-sharing and non-traded goods," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1-2), pages 69-89, August.
  21. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Chakrabarti, Avik, 2005. "Openness, size, and the saving-investment relationship," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 283-293, September.
  22. Amirkhalkhali, Saleh & Dar, Atul A, 1993. "Testing for Capital Mobility: A Random Coefficients Approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 18(3), pages 523-41.
  23. Peter Pedroni, 2000. "Fully Modified OLS for Heterogeneous Cointegrated Panels," Department of Economics Working Papers 2000-03, Department of Economics, Williams College.
  24. Martin Feldstein, 1994. "Tax policy and international capital flows," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 130(4), pages 675-697, December.
  25. Jansen, W. Jos, 2000. "International capital mobility: evidence from panel data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 507-511, August.
  26. Bangake, Chrysost & Eggoh, Jude C., 2011. "The Feldstein-Horioka puzzle in African countries: A panel cointegration analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 939-947, May.
  27. Maddala, G S & Wu, Shaowen, 1999. " A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 631-52, Special I.
  28. Tesar, L.L., 1988. "Savings, Investment And International Capital Flows," Papers 64, Brookings Institution - Working Papers.
  29. Westerlund Joakim, 2006. "Testing for Error Correction in Panel Data," Research Memorandum 056, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
  30. Hamid Faruqee, 1992. "Dynamic Capital Mobility in Pacific Basin Developing Countries: Estimation and Policy Implications," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 39(3), pages 706-717, September.
  31. Peter Pedroni, 2004. "Social Capital, Barriers to Production, and Capital Shares: Implications for the Importance of Parameter Heterogeneity from a Nonstationary Panel Approach," Department of Economics Working Papers 2004-03, Department of Economics, Williams College.
  32. Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen Reinhart & Guillermo Calvo, 1992. "Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors," IMF Working Papers 92/62, International Monetary Fund.
  33. Kim, Hongkee & Oh, Keun-Yeob & Jeong, Chan-Woo, 2005. "Panel cointegration results on international capital mobility in Asian economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 71-82, February.
  34. Pesaran, M.H. & Smith, R., 1992. "Estimating Long-Run Relationships From Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9215, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  35. Apergis, Nicholas & Tsoumas, Chris, 2009. "A survey of the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle: What has been done and where we stand," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 64-76, June.
  36. Murphy, Robert G., 1984. "Capital mobility and the relationship between saving and investment rates in OECD countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 327-342, December.
  37. Coakley, Jerry & Kulasi, Farida & Smith, Ron, 1998. "The Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle and Capital Mobility: A Review," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 3(2), pages 169-88, April.
  38. N. Vasudeva Murthy, 2009. "The Feldstein–Horioka puzzle in Latin American and Caribbean countries: a panel cointegration analysis," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer, vol. 33(2), pages 176-188, April.
  39. Feldstein, Martin & Horioka, Charles, 1980. "Domestic Saving and International Capital Flows," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 90(358), pages 314-29, June.
  40. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
  41. Jerry Coakley & Ana-Maria Fuertes & Fabio Spagnolo, 2004. "Is the Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle History?," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 72(5), pages 569-590, 09.
  42. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Charikleia Economidou & Gour Goswami, 2006. "Bilateral J-curve between the UK vis-a-vis her major trading partners," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(8), pages 879-888.
  43. Coakley, Jerry & Kulasi, Farida & Smith, Ron, 1996. "Current Account Solvency and the Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(436), pages 620-27, May.
  44. Pedroni, Peter, 2004. "Panel Cointegration: Asymptotic And Finite Sample Properties Of Pooled Time Series Tests With An Application To The Ppp Hypothesis," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(03), pages 597-625, June.
  45. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Artatrana Ratha, 2007. "The S-curve Dynamics of US Bilateral Trade," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(2), pages 430-439, 05.
  46. Haque, Nadeem U. & Montiel, Peter, 1991. "Capital mobility in developing countries: Some empirical tests," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 19(10), pages 1391-1398, October.
  47. Kim, Sunghyun Henry, 2001. "The saving-investment correlation puzzle is still a puzzle," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(7), pages 1017-1034, December.
  48. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1986. "Capital mobility in the world economy: Theory and measurement," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 55-103, January.
  49. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Janardhanan Alse, 1994. "Short-Run versus Long-Run Effects of Devaluation: Error-Correction Modeling and Cointegration," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 20(4), pages 453-464, Fall.
  50. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
  51. Levich, Richard M., 1985. "Empirical studies of exchange rates: Price behavior, rate determination and market efficiency," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 19, pages 979-1040 Elsevier.
  52. Miller, Stephen M., 1988. "Are saving and investment co-integrated?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 31-34.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:trstrv:v:19:y:2013:i:3:p:313-323. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sonal Shukla)

or (Christopher F Baum)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.