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Export diversification and the S-curve effect in a resource-rich state: evidence from Azerbaijan

Listed author(s):
  • Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee

    ()

  • Rustam Jamilov

    ()

Resource-rich states often miss out on diversified export-led growth opportunities due to their overreliance on resource-generated revenues. One strategy to boost non-resource exportation is to temporarily devalue the domestic currency and to provide exporters with some price competitiveness. This paper applies the notion of currency devaluation to the issue of export diversification via the S-curve principle. A comprehensive analysis of aggregate, bilateral, and industry-level trade is employed for Azerbaijan—a country-model for resource-abundant states with underdeveloped non-oil sectors. Consistent and strong evidence in favor of the S-curve effect is found in all stages of our analysis. In particular, a depreciative shock to the exchange rate correlates positively with the balance of trade on the aggregate and bilateral levels, as well as in 16 of the 20 industries examined. Results confirm previous literature findings. Azerbaijan’s non-oil exportation responds to a depreciated Manat in a systematically positive way, which adds further value to the argument of using currency devaluations for export diversification in resource-rich economies. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media New York 2014

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s10644-013-9145-8
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Article provided by Springer in its journal Economic Change and Restructuring.

Volume (Year): 47 (2014)
Issue (Month): 2 (May)
Pages: 135-154

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Handle: RePEc:kap:ecopln:v:47:y:2014:i:2:p:135-154
DOI: 10.1007/s10644-013-9145-8
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.springer.com

Order Information: Web: http://www.springer.com/economics/development/journal/10644/PS2

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  1. Rose, Andrew K. & Yellen, Janet L., 1989. "Is there a J-curve?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 53-68, July.
  2. Jamilov, Rustam, 2011. "J-Curve Dynamics and the Marshall-Lerner Condition: Evidence from Azerbaijan," MPRA Paper 36799, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Feb 2012.
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  8. Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
  9. Halicioglu, Ferda, 2008. "The bilateral J-curve: Turkey versus her 13 trading partners," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 236-243, June.
  10. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Marzieh Bolhasani, 2008. "The J-Curve: Evidence from commodity trade between Canada and the U.S," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 32(3), pages 207-225, July.
  11. Jamilov, Rustam, 2012. "Is There a J-curve for Azerbaijan? Evidence from Industry-Level Analysis," MPRA Paper 39370, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  12. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Charikleia Economidou & Gour Goswami, 2006. "Bilateral J-curve between the UK vis-a-vis her major trading partners," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(8), pages 879-888.
  13. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Salman Huseynov & Rustam Jamilov, 2014. "Is there a J-curve for Azerbaijan? New evidence from industry-level analysis," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(1), pages 83-98, March.
  14. Hsing Yu, 2008. "A Study of the J-Curve for Seven Selected Latin American Countries," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 8(4), pages 1-14, December.
  15. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen, 1985. "Devaluation and the J-Curve: Some Evidence from LDCs," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(3), pages 500-504, August.
  16. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Hegerty, Scott W., 2009. "The Japanese-U.S. trade balance and the yen: Evidence from industry data," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 161-171, March.
  17. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Yongqing Wang, 2008. "The J-curve: evidence from commodity trade between US and China," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(21), pages 2735-2747.
  18. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Artatrana Ratha, 2004. "The J-curve dynamics of U.S. bilateral trade," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 28(1), pages 32-38, March.
  19. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Zohre Ardalani, 2007. "Is there a J-Curve at the Industry Level?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 6(26), pages 1-12.
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  21. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Ali Kutan, 2009. "The J-curve in the emerging economies of Eastern Europe," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(20), pages 2523-2532.
  22. Rustam Jamilov, 2013. "J-Curve Dynamics and the Marshall–Lerner Condition: Evidence from Azerbaijan," Transition Studies Review, Springer;Central Eastern European University Network (CEEUN), vol. 19(3), pages 313-323, February.
  23. Senhadji, Abdelhak S., 1998. "Dynamics of the trade balance and the terms of trade in LDCs: The S-curve," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 105-131, October.
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