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Euro depreciation and trade asymmetries between Germany and Italy versus the US: industry-level estimates

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  • Stefano Lucarelli
  • Filippo Umberto Andrini
  • Annamaria Bianchi

Abstract

Since April 2014 to March 2015, the European Central Bank expansionary monetary policy instigates a huge depreciation of the euro in terms of dollar. According to the mainstream monetary theory, these dynamics should make the exports cheaper and at the same time make the imports more expensive. Has real depreciation of the euro helped in the improvement of European countries’ trade balances? Following the main methodologies in the recent literature, our study analyses the effects of this depreciation both for Italy and Germany towards the US. We use industry-level data at monthly frequency. The results are different from each bilateral relationship. We find that 11 industries register a long-run improvement (8 for Italy and 3 for Germany). The J-curve effect is proven just in six cases, always for Italy. The inverted J-curve effect is proven in eight cases, four for Germany, and four for Italy. These results seem to be an indirect demonstration of the structural asymmetries between German and Italian economies: German economic system is more able to be competitive with a strong currency, than Italy.

Suggested Citation

  • Stefano Lucarelli & Filippo Umberto Andrini & Annamaria Bianchi, 2018. "Euro depreciation and trade asymmetries between Germany and Italy versus the US: industry-level estimates," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(1), pages 15-34, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:50:y:2018:i:1:p:15-34
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2017.1311000
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    Cited by:

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    2. Lucio Gobbi & Stefano Lucarelli, 2021. "ECB quantitative easing, euro depreciation and supply chains: Industry-level estimates for Germany, Italy and Greece. New prospects for a Minskyan big bank?," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 74(296), pages 25-50.
    3. Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee & Huseyin Karamelikli, 2023. "Is there J‐curve effect in the US Service Trade? Evidence from asymmetric analysis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(4), pages 3865-3875, October.
    4. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Harvey, Hanafiah & Halicioglu, Ferda, 2021. "Does the real exchange rate play any role in the trade between Mexico and Canada? An asymmetric analysis," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 1-21.
    5. Faheem Ur Rehman & József Popp & Ejaz Ahmad & Muhammad Asif Khan & Zoltán Lakner, 2021. "Asymmetric and Symmetric Link between Quality of Institutions and Sectorial Foreign Direct Investment Inflow in India: A Fresh Insight Using Simulated Dynamic ARDL Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(24), pages 1-18, December.
    6. Phan, Trang Hoai & Stachuletz, Rainer, 2022. "Bribery - Export Nexus under the Firm’s Growth Obstacles," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 132144, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    7. Tiblets Nguse & Betgilu Oshora & Maria Fekete-Farkas & Anita Tangl & Goshu Desalegn, 2021. "Does the Exchange Rate and Its Volatility Matter for International Trade in Ethiopia?," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-18, December.
    8. Xu, Jia & Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Karamelikli, Huseyin, 2022. "China’s trade in services and asymmetric J-curve," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 204-210.
    9. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Nouira, Ridha, 2021. "U.S.-German commodity trade and the J-curve: New evidence from asymmetry analysis," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 45(2).
    10. Gobbi, Lucio & Lucarelli, Stefano, 2022. "Pound Sterling depreciation and the UK's trade balance versus the USA's: Industry-level estimates," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 206-220.

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