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The Growing Interdependence Between Financial And Commodity Markets

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  • Jörg Mayer

Abstract

Financial investment has become increasingly important on commodity exchanges. This paper distinguishes two types of financial investors and emphasizes differences in their position taking motivation and price impacts. Index traders follow a passive strategy holding virtually only long positions. Money managers trade on both sides of the market and attempt to maximize short-term returns. Regression analysis indicates that: (i) index trader positions are particularly influenced by roll returns, while money managers emphasize spot returns; and that: (ii) money managers moved from emphasizing diversification to a more speculative strategy by taking commodity positions that are positively, rather than negatively, related to developments in equity markets. Granger-causality tests indicate that these differences translate into different price impacts: (i) index trader positions have a causal price impact particularly for agricultural commodities; and (ii) money managers had a causal impact during the sharp increases in the prices for some non-agricultural commodities.

Suggested Citation

  • Jörg Mayer, 2009. "The Growing Interdependence Between Financial And Commodity Markets," UNCTAD Discussion Papers 195, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
  • Handle: RePEc:unc:dispap:195
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    File URL: http://www.unctad.org/en/docs/osgdp20093_en.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ron Alquist & Lutz Kilian, 2010. "What do we learn from the price of crude oil futures?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 539-573.
    2. De Long, J Bradford & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, 1990. "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(4), pages 703-738, August.
    3. Gary B. Gorton & Fumio Hayashi & K. Geert Rouwenhorst, 2013. "The Fundamentals of Commodity Futures Returns," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 17(1), pages 35-105.
    4. Capuano, Christian, 2006. "Strategic noise traders and liquidity pressure with a physically deliverable futures contract," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 1-14.
    5. Christopher L. Gilbert, 2008. "How to Understand High Food Prices," Department of Economics Working Papers 0823, Department of Economics, University of Trento, Italia.
    6. J. Michael Harrison & David M. Kreps, 1978. "Speculative Investor Behavior in a Stock Market with Heterogeneous Expectations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 92(2), pages 323-336.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Coudert, Virginie & Mignon, Valérie, 2016. "Reassessing the empirical relationship between the oil price and the dollar," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 147-157.
    2. William Arrata & Alejandro Bernales & Virginie Coudert, 2013. "The Effects of Derivatives on Underlying Financial Markets: Equity Options, Commodity Derivatives and Credit Default Swaps," SUERF 50th Anniversary Volume Chapters, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum.
    3. Eduardo López E. & Víctor Riquelme P., 2010. "Auge, Colapso y Recuperación de los Precios de Materias Primas entre 2002 y 2010: ¿Qué Hay Detrás?," Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 13(2), pages 129-145, April.
    4. Bosch, David & Pradkhan, Elina, 2015. "The impact of speculation on precious metals futures markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 118-134.
    5. Silvennoinen, Annastiina & Thorp, Susan, 2013. "Financialization, crisis and commodity correlation dynamics," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 42-65.
    6. Troester, Bernhard & Staritz, Cornelia, 2013. "Fundamentals or financialisation of commodity markets: What determines recent wheat prices?," Working Papers 43, Österreichische Forschungsstiftung für Internationale Entwicklung (ÖFSE) / Austrian Foundation for Development Research.
    7. Staritz, Cornelia & Küblböck, Karin, 2013. "Re-regulation of commodity derivative markets: Critical assessment of current reform proposals in the EU and the US," Working Papers 45, Österreichische Forschungsstiftung für Internationale Entwicklung (ÖFSE) / Austrian Foundation for Development Research.
    8. Ahmadi, Maryam & Bashiri Behmiri, Niaz & Manera, Matteo, 2016. "How is volatility in commodity markets linked to oil price shocks?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 11-23.
    9. Niels C. Thygesen & Robert N. McCauley & Guonan Ma & William R. White & Jakob de Haan & Willem van den End & Jon Frost & Christiaan Pattipeilohy & Mostafa Tabbae & Ernest Gnan & Morten Balling & Paul , 2013. "50 Years of Money and Finance: Lessons and Challenges," SUERF 50th Anniversary Volume - 50 Years of Money and Finance: Lessons and Challenges, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum, number 1 edited by Morten Balling & Ernest Gnan.
    10. Dudziński Jerzy, 2009. "Financial Factors in Price Movements of Primary Commodities on the International Market," Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia, Sciendo, vol. 8(1), pages 113-125, January.
    11. Yilmaz Akyüz, 2012. "The Boom in Capital Flows to Developing Contries : Will It Go Bust Again?," Ekonomi-tek - International Economics Journal, Turkish Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 63-96, January.
    12. repec:wfo:wstudy:45238 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Bernhard Troester, 2012. "The determinants of the recent food price surges – A basic supply and demand model," Competence Centre on Money, Trade, Finance and Development 1206, Hochschule fuer Technik und Wirtschaft, Berlin.
    14. Vijay Kumar Varadi, 2012. "An evidence of speculation in Indian commodity markets," EconStor Preprints 57430, ZBW - German National Library of Economics.
    15. Machiko Nissanke, 2012. "Commodity Market Linkages in the Global Financial Crisis: Excess Volatility and Development Impacts," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(6), pages 732-750, June.
    16. Michael Hachula & Malte Rieth, 2017. "Identifying Speculative Demand Shocks in Commodity Futures Markets through Changes in Volatility," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1646, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    17. Gao, Lin & Süss, Stephan, 2015. "Market sentiment in commodity futures returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 84-103.
    18. Dudziński Jerzy, 2011. "The Current Economic Paradigm in the Light of Financialisation," Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia, Sciendo, vol. 10(1), pages 20-35, January.
    19. repec:kap:revdev:v:20:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1007_s11147-016-9126-y is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Staritz, Cornelia, 2012. "Financial markets and the commodity price boom: Causes and implications for developing countries," Working Papers 30, Österreichische Forschungsstiftung für Internationale Entwicklung (ÖFSE) / Austrian Foundation for Development Research.
    21. Sophie van Huellen, 2013. "Price Non-Convergence in Commodities: A Case Study of the Wheat Conundrum," Working Papers 185, Department of Economics, SOAS, University of London, UK.

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