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Agricultural Commodity Price Volatility: An Overview

Author

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  • Marilyne Huchet-Bourdon

    (AgroCampus Ouest, Rennes)

Abstract

Recent years have witnessed a sharp increase in many commodity prices. This report examines the question of whether commodity price volatility has materially changed with the rapid run up in world prices in 2006-09, followed by an equally sharp decline in many commodity prices. The report analyses international price volatility for selected agricultural commodities over the past half-century and their relationship with crude oil, fertiliser and the euro-dollar exchange rates. The analysis utilises different data sources, frequency of price observations, periods of observation, price volatility measures and a number of statistical tests to examine the various dimensions of the issue.

Suggested Citation

  • Marilyne Huchet-Bourdon, 2011. "Agricultural Commodity Price Volatility: An Overview," OECD Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Papers 52, OECD Publishing.
  • Handle: RePEc:oec:agraaa:52-en
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    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/5kg0t00nrthc-en
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    Cited by:

    1. M. Huchet Bourdon & C. Laroche Dupraz, 2014. "National food security: a framework for public policy and international trade," FOODSECURE Working papers 17, LEI Wageningen UR.
    2. Dennis Bergmann & Declan O’Connor & Andreas Thümmel, 2016. "An analysis of price and volatility transmission in butter, palm oil and crude oil markets," Agricultural and Food Economics, Springer;Italian Society of Agricultural Economics (SIDEA), vol. 4(1), pages 1-23, December.
    3. Kornher, Lukas & Kalkuhl, Matthias, 0. "Food Price Volatility in Developing Countries and its Determinants," Quarterly Journal of International Agriculture, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, vol. 52.
    4. Tharcisse NKUNZIMANA & François Kayitakire, 2013. "Measuring food price volatility and transmission in West Africa: How important are magnitudes of transmission across cereals and countries?," EcoMod2013 5219, EcoMod.
    5. Listorti, Giulia & Esposti, Roberto, 2012. "Horizontal Price Transmission in Agricultural Markets: Fundamental Concepts and Open Empirical Issues," Bio-based and Applied Economics Journal, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA), issue 1, April.
    6. Kalkuhl, Matthias & von Braun, Joachim & Torero, Maximo, 2016. "Food Price Volatility and Its Implications for Food Security and Policy," MPRA Paper 72164, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Matthias Kalkuhl & Lukas Kornher & Marta Kozicka & Pierre Boulanger & Maximo Torero, 2013. "Conceptual framework on price volatility and its impact on food and nutrition security in the short term," FOODSECURE Working papers 15, LEI Wageningen UR.
    8. Josefa Ramoni Perazzi & Giampaolo Orlandoni Merli, 2016. "¿Evolucionan las exportaciones colombianas hacia un mercado más volátil?: un análisis del periodo 1974-2014," REVISTA FACULTAD DE CIENCIAS ECONÓMICAS, UNIVERSIDAD MILITAR NUEVA GRANADA, vol. 25(1), pages 25-40, December.
    9. Deborah Bentivoglio & Adele Finco & Mirian Rumenos Piedade Bacchi, 2016. "Interdependencies between Biofuel, Fuel and Food Prices: The Case of the Brazilian Ethanol Market," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 9(6), pages 1-16, June.
    10. Bentivoglio, Deborah & Finco, Adele & Bacchi, Mirian, 2015. "Examining Price Transmission between Fuels and Food Prices: the Brazilian Sugar-Ethanol Market," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 211327, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    11. Rosa, Franco & Vasciaveo, Michela & Weaver, Robert D., 2014. "Agricultural and oil commodities: price transmission and market integration between US and Italy," Bio-based and Applied Economics Journal, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA), issue 2, August.
    12. Matthias Göcke & Jolita Matulaityte, 2015. "Modelling economic hysteresis losses caused by sunk adjustment costs," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201536, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    13. Pieters, Hannah & Swinnen, Johan, 2016. "Trading-off volatility and distortions? Food policy during price spikes," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 27-39.
    14. Mansoor Maitah & Petr Prochazka & Michal Cermak & Karel Šrédl, 2016. "Commodity Channel Index: Evaluation of Trading Rule of Agricultural Commodities," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 6(1), pages 176-178.
    15. Ederer, Stefan & Heumesser, Christine & Staritz, Cornelia, 2013. "The role of fundamentals and financialisation in recent commodity price developments: An empirical analysis for wheat, coffee, cotton, and oil," Working Papers 42, Österreichische Forschungsstiftung für Internationale Entwicklung (ÖFSE) / Austrian Foundation for Development Research.
    16. Sassi, Maria, 2015. "The welfare cost of maize price volatility in Malawi," Bio-based and Applied Economics Journal, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA), issue 1, April.
    17. von Braun, Joachim & Tadesse, Getaw, 2012. "Global Food Price Volatility and Spikes: An Overview of Costs, Causes, and Solutions," Discussion Papers 120021, University of Bonn, Center for Development Research (ZEF).
    18. Williams, J., 2013. "Wheat and corn price skewness and volatility: Risk management implications for farmers and end users," Australasian Agribusiness Review, University of Melbourne, Melbourne School of Land and Environment, vol. 21.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    agricultural markets; correlation and causality; price volatility;

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