IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jrpoli/v38y2013i1p75-87.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A simple mineral market model: Can it produce super cycles in prices?

Author

Listed:
  • Cuddington, John T.
  • Zellou, Abdel M.

Abstract

This paper develops a stylized supply–demand model for a mineral/nonrenewable commodity. It embodies important distinctions between short-run and long-run mineral supply and the derived demand for minerals as intermediate goods in production sectors with differing intensities of use. This framework is used to address the question: under what conditions might one expect to observe super cycles (i.e. cycles with a period of 20–70 years) in minerals prices? A plausible time path for GDP growth and the structural transformation that accompanies economic development in an emerging region is specified. Using these drivers and reasonable supply and demand parameters, price dynamics are simulated. The result is an asymmetric price cycle with a peak price that is about 250% above trend and an expansion phase that lasts for about 20 years. Thus, this simple model is capable of producing a single cycle with a frequency and amplitude in the range estimated in the empirical literature on super cycles. As other regions reach the development ‘take-off' phase, additional super cycles should emerge.

Suggested Citation

  • Cuddington, John T. & Zellou, Abdel M., 2013. "A simple mineral market model: Can it produce super cycles in prices?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 75-87.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:38:y:2013:i:1:p:75-87
    DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2012.09.003
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301420712000669
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.resourpol.2012.09.003?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Krichene, Noureddine, 2002. "World crude oil and natural gas: a demand and supply model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 557-576, November.
    2. Franklin M. Fisher & Paul H. Cootner & Martin N. Baily, 1972. "An Econometric Model of the World Copper Industry," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 3(2), pages 568-609, Autumn.
    3. Cairns, Robert D. & Calfucura, Enrique, 2012. "OPEC: Market failure or power failure?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 570-580.
    4. Radetzki, Marian & Eggert, Roderick G. & Lagos, Gustavo & Lima, Marcos & Tilton, John E., 2008. "The boom in mineral markets: How long might it last?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 125-128, September.
    5. Oded Galor, 2011. "Unified Growth Theory," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 9477.
    6. John T Cuddington & Daniel Jerrett, 2008. "Super Cycles in Real Metals Prices?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 55(4), pages 541-565, December.
    7. Mr. Douglas Laxton & Mr. Andrew Berg & Mr. Philippe D Karam, 2006. "Practical Model-Based Monetary Policy Analysis: A How-To Guide," IMF Working Papers 2006/081, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Dahl, Carol & Duggan, Thomas E., 1996. "U.S. energy product supply elasticities: A survey and application to the U.S. oil market," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 243-263, October.
    9. Abdel M. Zellou & John T. Cuddington, 2012. "Trends and Super Cycles in Crude Oil and Coal Prices," Working Papers 2012-10, Colorado School of Mines, Division of Economics and Business.
    10. Radetzki,Marian, 2008. "A Handbook of Primary Commodities in the Global Economy," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521880206, Junio.
    11. Gaskins, Darius Jr., 1971. "Dynamic limit pricing: Optimal pricing under threat of entry," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 306-322, September.
    12. Jerrett, Daniel & Cuddington, John T., 2008. "Broadening the statistical search for metal price super cycles to steel and related metals," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 188-195, December.
    13. Mr. Douglas Laxton & Mr. Andrew Berg & Mr. Philippe D Karam, 2006. "A Practical Model-Based Approach to Monetary Policy Analysis—Overview," IMF Working Papers 2006/080, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Vásquez Cordano, Arturo L. & Zellou, Abdel M., 2020. "Super cycles in natural gas prices and their impact on Latin American energy and environmental policies," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    2. Govorukha, Kristina & Mayer, Philip & Rübbelke, Dirk & Vögele, Stefan, 2020. "Economic disruptions in long-term energy scenarios – Implications for designing energy policy," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    3. repec:ocp:ppaper:pb1824 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Schischke, A. & Papenfuß, P. & Brem, M. & Kurz, P. & Rathgeber, A.W., 2023. "Sustainable energy transition and its demand for scarce resources: Insights into the German Energiewende through a new risk assessment framework," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    5. Emilio Castillo & Roderick Eggert, 2019. "Reconciling Diverging Views on Mineral Depletion: A Modified Cumulative Availability Curve Applied to Copper Resources," Working Papers 2019-02, Colorado School of Mines, Division of Economics and Business.
    6. Juan Ignacio Guzmán & Enrique Silva, 2018. "Copper price determination: fundamentals versus non-fundamentals," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 31(3), pages 283-300, October.
    7. Arturo L. Vásquez Cordano & Abdel M. Zellou, 2016. "Where are natural gas prices heading, and what are the environmental consequences for Latin America?," Working Papers 71, Peruvian Economic Association.
    8. Abdel M. Zellou & John T. Cuddington, 2012. "Trends and Super Cycles in Crude Oil and Coal Prices," Working Papers 2012-10, Colorado School of Mines, Division of Economics and Business.
    9. Harald Ulrik Sverdrup & Anna Hulda Olafsdottir, 2020. "Conceptualization and parameterization of the market price mechanism in the WORLD6 model for metals, materials, and fossil fuels," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 33(3), pages 285-310, October.
    10. Yves Jégourel, 2018. "Tendances et cyclicité du prix des matières premières (partie 2) : le super-cycle des matières premières en question," Research papers & Policy papers on Commodities & Energy 1801, Policy Center for the New South.
    11. Baffes,John & Kabundi,Alain Ntumba & Nagle,Peter Stephen Oliver & Ohnsorge,Franziska Lieselotte, 2018. "The role of major emerging markets in global commodity demand," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8495, The World Bank.
    12. Yves Jégourel, 2018. "Tendances et cyclicité du prix des matières premières (partie 2) : le super-cycle des matières premières en question," Policy briefs on Commodities & Energy 1801, Policy Center for the New South.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Abdel M. Zellou & John T. Cuddington, 2012. "Trends and Super Cycles in Crude Oil and Coal Prices," Working Papers 2012-10, Colorado School of Mines, Division of Economics and Business.
    2. Thibault Fally & James Sayre, 2018. "Commodity Trade Matters," 2018 Meeting Papers 172, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    3. Baffes, John & Kabundi, Alain, 2023. "Commodity price shocks: Order within chaos?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    4. John Baffes & Alain Kabundi & Peter Nagle, 2022. "The role of income and substitution in commodity demand [Modelling OECD industrial energy demand: asymmetric price responses and energy-saving technical change]," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 74(2), pages 498-522.
    5. Tapia, Carlos & Coulton, Jeff & Saydam, Serkan, 2020. "Using entropy to assess dynamic behaviour of long-term copper price," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    6. Ehrlich, Lars G., 2018. "What drives nickel prices: A structural VAR approach," HWWI Research Papers 186, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
    7. Humphreys, David, 2010. "The great metals boom: A retrospective," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 1-13, March.
    8. Andrade de Sá, Saraly & Daubanes, Julien, 2016. "Limit pricing and the (in)effectiveness of the carbon tax," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 28-39.
    9. Rivera, Nilza & Guzmán, Juan Ignacio & Jara, José Joaquín & Lagos, Gustavo, 2021. "Evaluation of econometric models of secondary refined copper supply," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    10. Michel Juillard & Charles Freedman & Dmitry Korshunov & Mr. Douglas Laxton & Mr. Ondrej Kamenik & Ioan Carabenciov & Igor Ermolaev & Jared Laxton, 2008. "A Small Quarterly Multi-Country Projection Model with Financial-Real Linkages and Oil Prices," IMF Working Papers 2008/280, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Kleijn, René & van der Voet, Ester & Kramer, Gert Jan & van Oers, Lauran & van der Giesen, Coen, 2011. "Metal requirements of low-carbon power generation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 5640-5648.
    12. Karan Bhuwalka & Randolph E. Kirchain & Elsa A. Olivetti & Richard Roth, 2023. "Quantifying the drivers of long‐term prices in materials supply chains," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 27(1), pages 141-154, February.
    13. Baffes,John & Kabundi,Alain Ntumba & Nagle,Peter Stephen Oliver & Ohnsorge,Franziska Lieselotte, 2018. "The role of major emerging markets in global commodity demand," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8495, The World Bank.
    14. Rossen, Anja, 2015. "What are metal prices like? Co-movement, price cycles and long-run trends," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 255-276.
    15. Aadil Nakhoda, 2014. "The Influence of Industry Financial Composition on the Exports from Pakistan," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 10, pages 21-49.
    16. International Monetary Fund, 2011. "Republic of Poland: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2011/167, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Jair N. Ojeda-Joya & Oscar Jaulin-Mendez & Juan C. Bustos-Peláez, 2019. "The Interdependence Between Commodity-Price and GDP Cycles: A Frequency-Domain Approach," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 47(3), pages 275-292, September.
    18. Rubaszek, Michał & Szafranek, Karol & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2021. "The dynamics and elasticities on the U.S. natural gas market. A Bayesian Structural VAR analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    19. Golombek, Rolf & Irarrazabal, Alfonso A. & Ma, Lin, 2018. "OPEC's market power: An empirical dominant firm model for the oil market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 98-115.
    20. Dale F. Gray & Robert C. Merton & Zvi Bodie, 2007. "New Framework for Measuring and Managing Macrofinancial Risk and Financial Stability," NBER Working Papers 13607, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Super cycles; Long cycles; Metal markets; Metals' intensity of use;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:38:y:2013:i:1:p:75-87. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30467 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.