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Broadening the statistical search for metal price super cycles to steel and related metals

  • Jerrett, Daniel
  • Cuddington, John T.

During the past five years, industry analysts have proclaimed that metal prices are in the early phase of a 'super cycle,' driven primarily by Chinese industrial expansion. Academic economists have generally been very skeptical about the presence of long cycles. A time-series econometric analysis by Cuddington and Jerrett [2008. Super cycles in real metals prices? IMF Staff Pap. 55(4), in press], however, has used band-pass filtering techniques to isolate super cycles in the prices of six metals traded on the London Metal Exchange (the 'LME6'). This paper extends the search for super-cycle behavior to three additional metal products that are critical in the early phases of industrial development and urbanization: steel, pig iron, and molybdenum (a key ingredient in many steel alloys). There is strong evidence of super cycles in these three metals, although their timing differs to some extent from the super cycles found for the LME6.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Resources Policy.

Volume (Year): 33 (2008)
Issue (Month): 4 (December)
Pages: 188-195

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:33:y:2008:i:4:p:188-195
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30467

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  1. Diego Comin & Mark Gertler, 2003. "Medium Term Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 10003, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Radetzki, Marian & Eggert, Roderick G. & Lagos, Gustavo & Lima, Marcos & Tilton, John E., 2008. "The boom in mineral markets: How long might it last?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 125-128, September.
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  6. Paul Cashin & C. John McDermott, 2001. "The Long-Run Behavior of Commodity Prices; Small Trends and Big Variability," IMF Working Papers 01/68, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 1999. "The Band pass filter," Working Paper 9906, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    • Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 2003. "The Band Pass Filter," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(2), pages 435-465, 05.
  8. John T Cuddington & Daniel Jerrett, 2008. "Super Cycles in Real Metals Prices?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 55(4), pages 541-565, December.
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  10. Cuddington, John T. & Ludema, Rodney & Jayasuriya, Shamila A, 2002. "Prebisch-Singer Redux," Working Papers 15857, United States International Trade Commission, Office of Economics.
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