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Variable long-term trends in mineral prices: The ongoing tug-of-war between exploration, depletion, and technological change

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  • Cuddington, John T.
  • Nülle, Grant

Abstract

This paper explores the use of low-frequency band-pass filters for describing long-run trends in real mineral commodity prices. This approach has the advantage of allowing long-run trend rates to evolve gradually over time, rather than assuming that they are constant (perhaps with occasional structural breaks) over time. This is a flexible way of capturing the ongoing ‘tug of war’ between exploration, depletion, and technological change.

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  • Cuddington, John T. & Nülle, Grant, 2014. "Variable long-term trends in mineral prices: The ongoing tug-of-war between exploration, depletion, and technological change," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 224-252.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:42:y:2014:i:c:p:224-252
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2013.08.013
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    3. Juan B'ogalo & Pilar Poncela & Eva Senra, 2020. "Understanding fluctuations in economics through Multivariate Circulant Singular Spectrum Analysis," Papers 2007.07561, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2020.
    4. Tapia Cortez, Carlos A. & Hitch, Michael & Sammut, Claude & Coulton, Jeff & Shishko, Robert & Saydam, Serkan, 2018. "Determining the embedding parameters governing long-term dynamics of copper prices," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 186-197.
    5. Tapia, Carlos & Coulton, Jeff & Saydam, Serkan, 2020. "Using entropy to assess dynamic behaviour of long-term copper price," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    6. Hassler, J. & Krusell, P. & Smith, A.A., 2016. "Environmental Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1893-2008, Elsevier.

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