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Variable long-term trends in mineral prices: The ongoing tug-of-war between exploration, depletion, and technological change

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  • Cuddington, John T.
  • Nülle, Grant

Abstract

This paper explores the use of low-frequency band-pass filters for describing long-run trends in real mineral commodity prices. This approach has the advantage of allowing long-run trend rates to evolve gradually over time, rather than assuming that they are constant (perhaps with occasional structural breaks) over time. This is a flexible way of capturing the ongoing ‘tug of war’ between exploration, depletion, and technological change.

Suggested Citation

  • Cuddington, John T. & Nülle, Grant, 2014. "Variable long-term trends in mineral prices: The ongoing tug-of-war between exploration, depletion, and technological change," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 224-252.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:42:y:2014:i:c:p:224-252
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2013.08.013
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